Mizuho: “Pretty High” Confidence Data Will Show China Dumping US Treasuries

Now that even the shoeshine boy is speculating whether China is selling its US treasuries (to kill three birds with one stone: i) hammer the dollar, ii) push yields higher and iii) prop up the yuan, if only to give the impression that China is winning the trade war something we described here), Mizuho has a “pretty high” degree of confidence that data will eventually show if China has been selling US Treasuries, according to Jordan Rochester, EMEA head of FICC strategy at the bank.

“Annoyingly we don’t get the data quickly enough, the data’s always lagged,” Rochester said on Monday in an interview with Bloomberg TV when asked if the Chinese have been selling US debt.

“You’ve got the extreme tariffs on China and also future reciprocal tariffs that will be extreme on other Asian central banks and they’ve got to defend their currencies.”

“You’ve seen a much slower pace of selloff in the renminbi than you’d expect, given the size of the shock to their system, so there’s clearly some sort of smoothing going on in the FX market, and to do that a central bank has to sell the US Treasuries and others to fund that FX intervention”

Echoing what we said last week, Rochester notes that for now, “we can only speculate” on whether the Chinese are selling, “but we’ll find out in the data in due course,” adding that his degree of confidence that the data will in due course reveal China’s selling is “pretty high.”

Separately, Rochester said he was “surprised” the dollar was “on the back foot” on Monday morning, after Trump provided some exemptions on his proposed tariff activity over the weekend

“This is alarm bells, I think, for US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent,” Rochester said; “He’s now seeing a watering down of tariffs but still dollar weakness and US rates selling off still — it’s a horrible toxic combination”, which however can easily be explained precisely by Rochester’s core thesis, namely that China has been aggressively selling US paper, and is opportunistically converting the US-denominated proceeds into yuan at just the right time to give the impression that, as so many others have been parroting, that the US dollar is losing its reserve status.

His full interview starts around the 37 minutes mark.