‘Alarm’: Chicago Cubs have a ‘situation’ with pitcher after 9-run inning, demotion predicted

More shakeups are likely for the Chicago Cubs‘ pitching staff in the near future. In the short term, the Cubs are making their toughest choice of the season as to whether or not they will call up Cade Horton to take injured starting pitcher Shota Imanaga’s role on Saturday against the New York Mets.

In the long term, the Cubs must figure out what to do at closer. Ryan Pressly got absolutely rocked on Tuesday night when he surrendered eight earned runs in a nine-run 11th inning that allowed the San Francisco Giants to escape Wrigley Field with a 14-5 win.

That was just Pressly’s fourth appearance since April 20.

The Chicago Cubs have an alarming situation

Eno Sarris of The Athletic believes Pressly’s Stuff+ numbers (93) are the cause of “alarm” for the Cubs. Because Pressly’s velocity is declining, Sarris expects Chicago will demote Pressly from the role of closer.

“While starting pitching is more complicated than just investigating how good a player’s stuff is, relieving is much more reliant on having good velocity,” Sarris wrote. “We’ve known that forever, but also as a statistical given once it was shown how much more tightly reliever aging is tied to their fastball velocity than it is for starters. So when you have a closer with iffy stuff, you’ve got a situation…

“Team-wise, the Cubs might be okay. Porter Hodge looks the part of a high-stuff, high-leverage reliever, and improving the pen is something that is exceedingly possible in-season… For the player, though, this isn’t necessarily a list you want to be on. Pressly’s declining stuff — he’s lost velocity and ride on the four-seam, which has become more cutter-like, and his curve is his only remaining above-average pitch — will probably cost him the closer’s role sooner rather than later.”

Ryan Pressly must be better quickly

Pressly’s velocity was a problem on Tuesday night when, in the words of Cubs manager Craig Counsell, he could not finish off batters. The main reason why he couldn’t was because he was allowing them to make contact with the ball too often, something that can’t happen at closer.

Given Pressly’s age of 36, velocity likely won’t be getting better this season.

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