Chicago Cubs: Brace yourself, top starter could very well have an “off” 2025 season

The Chicago Cubs brought lefty Japanese pitching ace Shota Imanaga to the team last season, making the calculated gamble that his mound prowess would translate to the American game.

Their gamble was a wild success.

The Chicago Cubs Gambled– And Won– On Shota Imanaga

The former top asset of the Yokohama DeNA BayStars in the Japanese league, who signed with the Cubs on a 4-year, $53 million deal, turned heads and made an impact in hist first season, earning some attention as a Rookie of the Year candidate.

He also won the hearts of Cubs fans with a hefty dose of charm and humor that continues through this spring. He’s quickly become one of the most fan-favorite members of the squad.

Imanaga finished 2024 with a 15-3 record and a stellar 2.91 ERA in 173.1 innings pitched over 29 starts. All told, he was the Cubs’ most effective starter and will get the starting day nod in the team’s historic season opener against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Japan.

Wrigley Field Benefited Imanaga Greatly In 2024

But, by some estimations, he shouldn’t have been able to be such a shutdown starter with those kinds of numbers. As a fly ball pitcher– with a longstanding reputation for giving up home runs– working in Wrigley Field, he should’ve been touched up a lot more than he was.

Swirling 2024 winds at Wrigley were mostly blowing in, however, turning the park into one of the most pitcher-friendly homes in all of baseball. Statistical analysis reveals that it registered the second-lowest batting average and slugging percentage among MLB parks. These numbers were bolstered by the fact that it had the lowest home run rate in all of major league baseball. The Cubs pitching staff reaped the benefits of the weather turn, posting a 3.08 ERA at home (compared to a 4.53 ERA on the road).

Imanaga surely benefited greatly from the swirling Wrigley winds blowing in last season, with some guaranteed home runs knocked down into deep fly balls. He would finish the 2024 campaign with a 2.72 ERA at home, compared to a 3.14 ERA on the road.

There’s no guarantee that those same pitcher-friendly winds will be blowing in 2025.

There’s also no guarantee that the league won’t adapt to the 31-year-old Imanaga’s off-putting pitching style and pitch arsenal.

Experts Predict Regression in 2025

As a matter of fact, experts and analysts are pretty much unanimous in their belief that Imanaga’s numbers will be down considerably from his rookie year.

Steamer projects Imanaga to post a 3.66 ERA. ZiPS sees him delivering a 3.49 ERA. RotoChamp estimates a 3.74 ERA.

Those are all, still, respectable ERAs and, even in a near-worst case scenario, Imanaga is a really good pitcher and an asset to a starting rotation that also boasts Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd, and Javier Assad.

Aside from being a fly ball pitcher, he’s also a pitcher who makes bats miss balls. That attribute should provide some insurance against massive slippage.

But the Cubs’ reported pursuit of a front-of-rotation starter this offseason seems to speak to the fact that the front office is also acknowledging the possibility of some regression from Imanaga. If the left-hander is too generous in giving up the long ball, there will be considerable strain on those around him, who are counting on his ability to replicate, at least to a degree, his successes of last season.

Imanaga has been touched up a bit this spring training, but that really doesn’t tell one much. The real test will be when the season begins and the Wrigley flags start blowing.

Source: https://www.chicitysports.com/chicago-cubs-shota-imanaga-2025-preview?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicago-cubs-shota-imanaga-2025-preview