Four Downs: Ravens RBs (Old & New) Hold the Keys to HarBowl III

The 12th week of the NFL season couldn’t have started any better for the Baltimore Ravens. The Pittsburgh Steelers lost to the Cleveland Browns which serves as a snow-covered gift from the Football Gods. While nobody in Baltimore is over the loss last Sunday, the Pittsburgh stumble cracked the door a little wider for the Ravens to keep chasing the top spot in the AFC North.

Monday Night Football gives the Ravens a chance to close Week 12 with a statement victory. How do they get it done? Let’s go for it: Here’s your four downs for the week.

1st Down: Chargers Defense is No Joke!

Let’s just say that the Chargers defensive front presents a sizable challenge. LA’s three starting defensive linemen weigh a cumulative 905 pounds. Their outside linebacker position is a sacks-by-committee operation, with Tuli Tuipulotu leading the team with seven of the 20 sacks that position group has recorded this season. This is a defense that forces you to win your matchups up front. They don’t have a ton of elaborate disguises for what’s coming after the quarterback, they just have the right tools to get there. This is a who’s who kind of defense in the sense that you know a lot of the names. Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, Bud Dupree, Denzel Perryman, and Derwin James  are all household names for NFL fans.

Los Angeles currently sits right outside of the top 10 defenses in the league in yards allowed but they make points almost impossible to find. We’re talking about a defense that only gives up 14.5 points per game. The Bengals game last week was the only time this season they gave up more than 20 points (Ravens fans don’t need to be reminded of the fire power Cincinnati has).

The story I’m trying to paint for you is that this is a very similar battle to the one the Ravens struggled with last week. They have to go up against an explosive defensive front with size and burst. They are playing another defense with star power and a habit of making things brutally difficult for their opponent. The Ravens don’t come into this game with the same kind of baggage that they travel to Pittsburgh with, but the Chargers present the same problems that the Steelers gave Baltimore. Ravens fans will be itching for another prime time “Jackson 5” but this game will be anything but easy for the offense.

2nd Down: Herbert Doesn’t Have to be Superman Anymore

It’s amazing what happens to a franchise when the village idiot is forced out of the head coaching position and a formidable force is planted in his stead. The Chargers almost look like a completely new franchise with Jim Harbaugh replacing Brandon Staley. If you haven’t watched the Chargers since last season, you haven’t seen what this Chargers team has to offer. The biggest change is that Justin Herbert doesn’t have to play hero ball anymore just to make the team competitive. J.K. Dobbins has brought balance to the offense, adding 726 rushing yards to the equation. A typical day at the office for this team looks like 204 yards in the air and 121 yards on the ground. Herbert is having less of a monster stat line but is in a way more dangerous than ever before. He’s capable of putting the team on his back like when he out-dueled Joe Burrow last week in a 34-27 game. The Chargers are also capable of winning a game where he only throws the ball 20 times. He’s the captain of a well sailing ship, with a completion percentage of 63.5 and just one interception thrown on the year. You can say what you will about Greg Roman as an offensive coordinator (I know you can Baltimore) but things are on track with his unit and his quarterback.

What does this mean for the Ravens defense? The Ravens have to hope that Zach Orr’s unit has turned the corner. They have to make the Chargers one dimensional and bet that their back end has figured things out enough to keep Herbert from surgically operating down the field. The Ravens know what’s coming. Roman is going to call runs on early downs with the mindset of setting convertible third down situations. It’s been two years since Roman was the offensive coordinator of the Ravens, but if there’s anyone who should know his identity as a play-caller it’s John Harbaugh. The Ravens must slow down Dobbins, get the Chargers behind the sticks and put the pressure on Herbert. The Ravens must force the Chargers out of their comfort zone and make Herbert play hero ball to win this thing.

Fun fact for ya: The Ravens’ defense has 11 sacks in the last three games. The defense has to show that their sudden confidence in the secondary wasn’t a fluke and the front seven just has to keep doing what they’ve been doing.

3rd Down: RBs Hold the Keys

Is it me, or does it seem like this is a week where Derrick Henry is due for a big game? He hasn’t rushed for over 100 yards since the 41-10 win over the Broncos at the beginning of the month. Henry is still on pace for an incredible season and he leads the league in several rushing statistics. It still feels like he’s due to breakout a big run. Big plays from Henry unlock so much for the Ravens offense. Look for the Ravens to get Henry going early and often. If the Chargers don’t have an answer for Henry, Lamar Jackson will have his full bag of tricks to work with.

The Bengals picked on the Chargers defense a bit by using their running back in the passing game. Chase Brown had five receptions for 57 yards against the Chargers. It turns out, this is a trend for backs against Los Angeles this season. In the Chargers’ loss to Arizona, James Conner caught two big passes out of the backfield for 51 yards. The Chargers dominated the Saints but Alvin Kamara put up a valiant effort. Kamara was the Saints’ only offense in the contest, picking up 67 on the ground and catching six passes for 55 yards. These numbers may not be huge but it shows something the Ravens can do to get an extra chunk of production in this battle. Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell are both very solid targets out of the backfield. It sounds like a good game for the Ravens to remember them as a safety valve for Jackson against a team that can rush the passer. It’s also a good way to keep some of these talented linebackers busy.

The running backs are the key to everything for this offense. If the Ravens can run the ball the way they want to it will neutralize the Chargers’ pass rush. If Henry has over 100 yards the play-action pass game is almost guaranteed to be a problem for the Chargers. Imagine the things that could be possible if Keaton Mitchell makes his first big impression of the season and Justice Hill chips in some big plays as a pass catcher.  The Chargers would be caught in a game of whack-a-mole that could make them look silly. The running backs producing on the ground and in the passing game is quietly the key to the game.

4th Down: Potential X-Factors

One player that could be an X-factor for the Chargers is their tight end, Will Dissly. He isn’t one of the top tight ends in the NFL, yet he’s one of the most consistently solid players at the position. He’s good for three to five catches a game. He’s coming off his second game with at least four catches and 80 yards. In an offense that doesn’t have a surplus of receivers, Dissly is a comforting option for Herbert. Dissly had a slower start to the season but he’s become a needed piece for the Chargers’ offense.

For the Ravens, give me two defensive backs as the potential X-factors. Let’s start with Ar’Darius Washington. Washington has seen a recently elevated role in the defense and he’s the kind of player that has a nose for big plays. He’s had 19 total tackles in the last three games. He had a pick against the Broncos a few weeks ago, and he’s got a great combination of range and ball skills. There seems to be buzz and a positive vibe around Washington and I could see him making a play that has a big impact on Monday’s outcome.

Secondly, let’s go with Tre’Davious White. White got his first action with the Ravens against the Steelers, and passed the eye test with flying colors. There were a couple of plays where he got tested and won the battle with a wide receiver, including one where he prevented a George Pickens touchdown. White is a player that could give this secondary a boost even if he’s no longer the star he once was with the Bills.

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