Lerwick WMO 03005, DCNN 0043/0044 – An introduction to data analysis of the Surface Stations Project.

60.13908 -1.18432 Met Office CIMO Assessed Class 4. Installation date varies even from the same source – Digital Temperature records archived from 1/11/1921. Manual records from 1901 – (possibly)

This review is both one of the Lerwick site and also acts as an introduction to aspects of data analysis being carried by both the Talkshop and other “associates” similarly working on historic nationa temperature data analysis. The prime initial purpose of the Surface Stations Project was to assess existing and former Met Office weather stations quality and suitability in contributing data to the national historic temperature record. Running parallel to this are my own, and several others, efforts to provide an alternative historic temperature record to that provided by the Met Office. Very much a collaborative project, this will be based on hard, verified data using scientific objectivity and avoiding any preconceived political or ideological motivation. All are welcome to join, “peer review” or just have your say.

This latter objective is “work in progress” but I feel it is worthy of introducing the concept and how this is currently developing. Lerwick provides a good example to demonstrate many points.

Firstly to clarify this site and dates, there was a weather station known as “Lerwick” operated by the Scottish Meterological Society with archived data of photo-copied manual records held under the “Scottish Red Book”. It seems difficult now to confirm its exact location as the given coordinates are not specific enough to pinpoint it, however, it does appear to be to the south side of the town in close approximation to the current site.

What can be confirmed is that the current digitalised records run from 1/11/1921 at the current site which was allegedly established at the request of the Norwegian government following representations made by Roald Amundsen. Oddly there seems to be different dates offered for this site’s start date and from when records actually which will be discussed later.

The site itself has not been significantly relocated, however, there have been more than one numbered Stevenson Screen used over the period of operation. DCNN 0043 & 0044 with data from both sets have been recorded and archived for a considerable overlapping period also discussed later.

The site is now currently Met Office assessed as a lowly Class 4 with its attendant inaccuracy due to siting of +/- 2  °C. This, in itself, is surprising as Lerwick ranks as one of the Met Office’s most important sites with a surprisingly large number of attendant staff – again more later. It is vitally important to note that when Tim Channon reviewed this site in 2012 he was perfectly okay with a Class 1 rating or possibly a pernickety Class 2. Studying his review In detail brought up many more queries than it answered and is well worth reading AND the attendant comments.

Checking out Tim’s close up aerial imagery above from 2012 is notably quite different from now as below.

All the additional housing close to the screen is actually to house Met office staff – consider this from Shetland.org

https://www.shetland.org/blog/the-weather-its-all-about-location

“But it’s also a seismographic recording station, measuring earthquakes all over the world, and is one of only two stations in the UK – the other is in Cornwall – recording ozone levels. The observatory also monitors data from around 150 unmanned sites around Britain. Staff moved into a new, £1.2m building in early 2014.”

As the above link demonstrates a lot goes on at this site but also notice the remark about most homes in Shetland ” bearing in mind that most houses are below the 30m contour and enjoy rather more shelter than the observatory.” The Observatory is at 82 metres so consider this 2023 image.

Then look at all the lack of any homes south of the “Burn of Sound” in this image from 2003

I cannot go further back than 2003 on historic aerial imagery but a quick Street view trip around most of the roads to the north of “burn of sound” shows all new build units likely from the 1990s and above that traditional 30 metre contour.

Another point to note from the Ordnance Survey contour mapping is that “Sandy Loch” is anything but a traditional feature being an artificial reservoir. Online imagery reveals former homes emerging at low water levels. This entire area is certainly not as natural as may be thought of on casual inspection.

The summary of this part is that Lerwick was once probably an open site away from any general extraneous heat sources and on reasonably flat ground though was a somewhat exposed coastal one. Now, however, modern building developments on both the immediate site and local environs are progressively degrading its initial quality. The Met Office has tacitly accepted this by its low CIMO assessment of Class 4.

The second part of this report moves on to the data that I am proposing to select from good quality and representative sites only AND the interesting comment that the late Roger Andrews (a regular contributor to Euan Mearns Energy Matters Blog and indeed also to the Talkshop amongst others. The comment regarding Lerwick was:

i was puzzled by this remark, on a personal level my research so far has indicated that “Station quality” is the primary consideration. In whatever way others may opt to subsequently manipulate data should never be the deciding factor – original data is always the prime starting point and accuracy is the 100% critical factor. Roger may have had his views but in this instance he did not support them with any evidence. I have no wish to speak ill of the remark but it is beholden on the Talkshop to provide a credible alternative based on facts not “gut feel” however strongly felt that may be.

Whether or not the Lerwick record “shows only 0.1C of overall warming” has to be tested. At this point I asked former professional auditor Dave Woolcock for his assistance. Dave is very experienced indeed in handling bulk data sets and number accuracy is very much a key factor in financial accounting. Spotting “errors of omission” is equally as important as spotting “errors of commission.” Dave has downloaded every single weather station’s data from the CEDA archives (a monumental task) and gone through the figures analysing accuracy and completeness. This is not a simple task at all as anyone who has studied these figures can testify to.

It may surprise many to realise that the Met Office data collection and averaging systems are nothing like as sophisticated as they may assume. For example, a station recording manually once a day at 9:00 am (the majority once were) has its highest recording logged for the day before the reading was taken whilst the minimum is automatically assumed to be from that day. This is purely an assumption and most certainly often not the case for example where an overnight warm front came across the site. Other sites subsequently recorded twice daily ( 09:00 am 21:00 pm) with different max/min date assumptions made. Quite how the Met Office “fills in” for the frequent missing days data seems to be anyone’s guess. Often when transitions are made from one reporting type to another both separate sites are recorded meaning records go from once to thrice daily – in the case of Lerwick this happened for several years. Which readings are used and how the issue of daily “throwback” is handled becomes difficult – a financial auditor cannot get away with this sort of highly opaque accounting but apparently this inexact “Climate Science” has a special dispensation to be vague. conversely Dave in his analysis is determinedly scrupulous and logs the exactitude of even single missing data points – accuracy is King.

What does the Met office data show us about climate averages over the SIXTY {deliberate bold} year period 1960 to 2020 for Lerwick? Bear in mind it would be extraordinarily strange to be “Grid Squaring” a site like Lerwick on Mainland, Shetland – there are no other Mainland, Shetland stations to cell average it with. Surely nobody could consider any other site would be “well correlated” with such a unique and distinct site.

1961 to 1990 30 year average below.

And here is the period subsequent for 1991 to 2020.

What these two datasets are showing is an increase of 0.6°C from an annual average maximum of 9.2°C for 1961/1991 to 9.8°C in the latter period. Average minimum has increased from 4.76°C to 5.6°C – an increment of 0.84°C. All of this is claimed for just 60 years. However, closer inspection of just these Met Office numbers reveals some peculiarities. The month of June seems not to have fully got the message with increments of just 0.11°C and 0.52°C in maxima and minima respectively. October seems to be equally reticent with just 0.18°C and a mere 0.32°C whilst just turning that calendar page one day sees November boasting 0.9°C and an amazing 1.24°C increments in maximum and minimum. Clearly this deadly Anthropogenic Global Warming likes to take holidays in early summer and late autumn or perhaps there are other explanations – more later in future posts on this seasonal variation.

So to Dave Woolcock’s detailed analysis. For accuracy I will post his initial finding’s reply to me. Yes it is technical but I would not wish to add any error by paraphrasing.

I will post more below but just to focus in on Dave’s summary assessment.

” For tMax over 101 years the data show 0.61 degrees C warming” And yet the Met office manages to show 0.6°C in just sixty years above.

“For tMin over 101 years the data show 1.35 degrees C warming (over twice as much as
tMax)” The Met office derives 0.84°C also in 60 years which on a linear progression would almost exactly equate to Dave’s calculation.

This divergence in maxima recorded with the Met office running hotter is a point I have extensively made in my reports – the reason will be further focused upon in future reports but for now further graphics from Dave demonstrating his meticulous approach. Dave has supplied numerous excel spread sheets and all his data which would be too lengthy to display in full here. However, these are available for scutiny/peer review.

Given that we are unquestionably emerging from the Little Ice Age and temperatures are returning to levels prior to that event, I simply cannot see any “hockey sticks” in the above. Conversely a gentle upward and non-alarming trend is just discernible.

This post is primarily to demonstrate that the Surface Stations project has an ultimate purpose and, though it will take a long time yet to cover all relevant surface stations, the process of analysing is already well under way. I will post other such similar interim reports along the way associated with weather stations highlighting the points found.

Source: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2025/05/07/lerwick-wmo-03005-dcnn-0043-0044-an-introduction-to-data-analysis-of-the-surface-stations-project/