Aberdaron DCNN 7714 – Hindcasting to a pregnant pause.

52.78903 -4.74116 Met Office CIMO Assessed Class 2 Temperature Records from 1/9/1993

Tim Channon originally reviewed this site in 2012 judging it Class 3 due to unstable ground cover. Subsequent aerial imagery to that which Tim used confirms ever changing agricultural use as well as areas to the west being used to store large quantities of black plastic wrapped products. This site is not all that it may seem.

The wider general view indicates a coastal cliff top site at 86 metres/ 282 feet amsl, similar in height to the famous White Cliffs of Dover. The site is clearly very exposed and noted for regularly registering record wind speeds over 100mph.

Such sites are important in weather forecasting and Aberdaron has the full range of monitoring instrumentation, however. it is less likely to offer a meaningful impression of the overall UK climate being located in such an extreme location. The Met Office, quite correctly, has many weather stations in such extreme locations notably mountain tops and passes, remote islands, deep valleys and so on for weather forecasting and immediate area recording but it is questionable how such sites temperature readings can usefully represent the national historic temperature record. This issue is graphically demonstrated in a close up image courtesy of wikimedia taken from the north west looking downwards towards the south east.

I concur with Tim’s assessment of Class 3 and dispute the Met Office’s Class 2 claim which I suspect is based entirely on tape measuring. The enclosure has been levelled with the spoil producing an embankment to the north and west elevations subsequently covered in wild vegetation. The walling to the south is problematic and added to both the variable cropping and general dumping ground to the east renders this site below Class 2 demarcation. Contrast this Aberdaron site with that at Stowe school. For reasons known only to the Met Office, the Stowe site formerly shown as class 1 was suddenly marked down to Class 4 despite it clearly being a much superior site to the likes of Aberdaron.

These issues are, however, only a small part of my concerns regarding the way data from these sorts of site are being misrepresented by the Met Office. Regular readers will be aware of my numerous reports regarding weather stations long closed still reporting 30 year rolling climate averages, some as much as half a century after closure such as Manby, Bodiam and Scole among many others. The Met Office made elaborate claims regarding “peer reviewed” and “internationally accepted” processes for fabricating data for non-existent sites. However, when challenged to provide the details of the “well correlated” sites which were used to fabricate the numbers for both the Folkestone and Dover closed sites, the Met office were unable to do so claiming these records had not been retained. I currently have Freedom of Information requests in hand with the Met Office to provide the details under their “OPEN DATA” and “TRANSPARENCY” policies of the weather stations used for not only the above mentioned three sites but also for the ongoing data reporting site at Lowestoft. I will issue a special report when, and if, replies are forthcoming.

This issue affects Aberdaron in perversely the reverse way – above are sites zombie-like reporting long after their death but this one (also like many others) reports from well before it was “born” – what does one call a “pre-natal” Zombie?……an “Aberdaron” perhaps?

Aberdaron only has temperature records of any form running from 1/9/1993. Even the 1990 to 2020 30 year averaging period does not have full real site data coverage. The 1961 to 1990 period has no readings whatsoever.

So to examine what the Met Office claimed in detail from their inept attempt to debunk the Talkshop via its Facebook sponsored censorship mouthpiece, we have this:

Why only “certain weather stations” and what about all the others that have collected data from well before Aberdaron came into being? Why, for example, is operational and long term Goudhurst not archived under a Location Specific Long Term Averages whilst nearby Bodiam which closed 51 years ago is?

What is the definition of well-correlated? When none other than the Royal Meteorological Society Chairman Philip Eden queried the alleged 2003 Faversham record being almost 4°C above the formerly considered well-correlated long term site (from 1907) at Wye just a few miles away, the Met Office dismissed his concerns as not relevant.

More importantly which possible “well-correlated” weather stations were there prior to 1993 on the Lleyn Peninsula to be used? I can find no similarly located former stations in the area and even if there were, why not continue to extend their data as in the above Bodiam example in lieu of Aberdaron? There is nothing long term about Aberdaron at all, so why is it considered suitable to have such exceptional treatment?

In addition to the four FOI requests for details of stations are being used to correlate data for closed stations mentioned above, I have now put in requests for details of those stations used to “hindcast” for both Aberdaron and Fontmell Magna (Cranborne Chase, Wiltshire and a similarly unique site ). If the Met Office are unable to provide adequate specifics of the stations used in producing long term climate averages then their alleged data is fake and immediately fails any scientific or objective analysis.

The Met Office is weaving a very tangled web. It is due time for them to put up their details and be held accountable. If they cannot or will not they must be taken to task for deceit.

Source: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2025/04/28/aberdaron-dcnn-7714-hindcasting-to-a-pregnant-pause/