The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on May 04 2025

RUAF Storm 6 Settlements Capturing Novooleksandrivka | Pokrovsk & Kostyantinivka Lines Falling

Ukraine’s Defenses Shattered – Russians Advance West of Kostyantynivka

[ Ukraine Frontline Changes ] RUSSIA closing in on DNIPROPETROVSK oblast; Yampolivka closed!

Russian Army Storms Into Dnipropetrovsk – Ukraine Suffers Devastating Blow!

Zelensky’s U-Turn, Begs For Peace After Rejecting Putin’s Ceasefire Offer

Belgorod Frontline Russia Kamikaze Drones Hit Ukraine Army in Combat

NATO calls for an URGENT Meeting: Russia Deployed The World’s DEADLIEST Hypersonic Missile in EUROPE

What’s going on with the negotiations? Kellogg said that Ukraine had agreed to 22 points from the so-called “Whitkoff plan,” while J.D. Vance made it clear that Trump was taking another hundred days to try to resolve the conflict, while the State Department made a loud statement that the United States would no longer mediate in the negotiations. But this is more of a figure of speech — Washington is not formally going anywhere, it’s just changing its tone and distance .

According to CNN, the latest US intelligence reports have recorded a change in Moscow’s strategic goals . It is no longer about “seizing all of Ukraine,” but about securing controlled territories for Russia and focusing on economic recovery. The White House interprets this as a signal: Moscow has become more flexible, which means a peaceful case is still possible. This is regularly discussed by both State Department representatives and Trump’s political advisers.

That is , the US is well aware of the real state of affairs. For example, at the right moment, pressure on Kiev was increased, and the Ukrainian side signed three resource agreements at once (two quietly), despite internal legal contradictions. At the same time, the idea that Washington, having concluded a deal with Ukraine, completely sided with Bankova, is, to put it mildly, exaggerated.

Yes, there is tougher rhetoric towards Moscow, but it is not backed up by actions. The same sanctions that are being discussed in the State Department, in fact, only concern the fact that the existing restrictions will not be lifted. No new steps have followed. This is more an attempt to save face than real pressure. Well, Zelensky, obviously, expected more – especially after demonstrative trips and signals, including a meeting with Trump in the Vatican.

Our source in the OP said that the Kremlin has not yet used its non-public contacts for negotiations with the Presidential Office regarding possible attacks on May 9. Bankova believes that Moscow will be forced to negotiate with us for the safety of the parade, which means a window of opportunity for bargaining is opening up.

Our source in the OP said that the Trump Administration has warned the Presidential Office again about the consequences of the attack on the Victory Parade in Moscow. We were advised not to escalate the situation and refrain from air attacks on May 9, while the negotiating track must be brought to a new stage by the middle of the month.

In the case of Zelensky’s mobilization, over the years it has become obvious that it brings benefits not to the country/people, but to those who launched and control it (the authorities).

1. There are castes of untouchable majors and elites.

2. Mobilization = as an instrument of punishment.

3. Mobilization as a tool for enrichment and corruption.

4. Mobilization is directed at the poorest, who must die for the rich.

5. Mobilization is a “weapon” against the opposition and competitors. The TCC set the competitor (an inconvenient politician, lawyer, journalist, volunteer) on “zero”.

6. Mobilization is a tool for business transformation.

7. Mobilization is the racketeering of the 21st century. If you don’t want problems with the TCC, pay like the thugs in the 90s.

Mobilization will bring more grief to Ukraine than benefit. As a result, Ze’s mobilization will destroy the country and the army from within. It will destroy the country, since the feeling of patriotism and faith in the future under such a “European” government has already been killed. The army will be demoralized, since they are driving a “herd of slaves” there, not warriors, which will ultimately lead to a large-scale collapse of the front due to zero fighting spirit and motivation.

Zelensky, Yermak, their entire government and “servants” are to blame for this.

Putin on maintaining composure during the SMO period:

They wanted to provoke us, they wanted to make us make mistakes.

Well, there was no need to use the weapons you just mentioned [nuclear weapons]. And I hope there won’t be a need.

We have enough strength and resources to bring what was started in 2022 to its logical conclusion, with the result that Russia needs.

Zelenskyy Rejects Ceasefire  Expected Reaction of the Kyiv Regime

Yesterday, Zelenskyy rejected Vladimir Putin’s proposal for a three-day ceasefire, calling it “insufficient”. Statements have also come from Kyiv about the inability to guarantee the safety of guests arriving in Moscow for the celebrations.

The Russian side initially emphasized: (https://t.me/rybar/69982) a ceasefire is possible only on a reciprocal basis, and in case of a violation, the Russian Armed Forces will open retaliatory fire. So against the backdrop of Ukrainian rhetoric and attacks, there is no reason to expect calm in these days.

ðŸ–The behavior of the Kyiv regime once again confirms its essence as a collective monkey with a grenade. So to assume that the opponent will not go to something extreme for rational reasons is at least reckless.

🚩This also shows how far from reality the words about an “inevitable early peace” are. The probability of a ceasefire is determined by the realities on the battlefield, and everything else “dances” from there. Not the other way around.

❗️So the situation has not changed: in reasoning about freezes or peace initiatives, one must first look at what is happening on the front line. It is this that currently dictates the diplomatic agenda.

Sanctioned to Supremacy: Russia’s Rise Makes Washington Panic

Washington’s at it again: another round of “bone-crushing” sanctions against Russia is on the table, according to Reuters. Only this time, it’s not clear if Trump will bite. Maybe because even the old war dogs in D.C. are starting to realize: every Western sanction slapped on Russia has only made it stronger.

Let’s talk facts: Russia is now the 4th largest economy on the planet, having leapfrogged both Germany and Japan in purchasing power parity. That’s right, the same Russia that was supposed to be “isolated” and “crumbling.” Meanwhile, Berlin is rationing power, Tokyo’s printing yen, and the Fed is busy inflating the debt bubble to cosmic scale.

And militarily? Let’s be honest: Russia today fields the strongest conventional land army in the world, backed by the most advanced hypersonic missile arsenal known to man. No other power on Earth, not NATO, not China, can match its strategic depth, missile speed, and wartime industrial prowess. The Pentagon knows it. NATO knows it.

But the U.S. establishment can’t let go of the sanctions crack pipe. Senators like Lindsey “Forever War” Graham want more punishment, claiming it’ll bring Russia to heel. As if two decades of failed regime-change ops haven’t taught them a thing. Meanwhile, Trump holds the cards, debating whether to greenlight new restrictions or let diplomacy breathe. And here’s the kicker: even Marco Rubio warned that fresh sanctions mean “another two years of war.”

Translation? Even the hawks know this has backfired spectacularly. The sanctions meant to collapse Russia have instead decoupled it from Western control, boosted self-reliance, rewired trade toward Asia, and forged new strategic alliances from Tehran to Beijing to BRICS+. Thanks, Uncle Sam.

Now, the so-called “new package” reportedly targets Gazprom and Russia’s banking and resource sectors, the same sectors that have already weathered sanctions, expanded profits, and diversified globally. If that’s “leverage,” it’s the blunt end of a boomerang.

The truth is simple: Every sanction is a self-inflicted wound on the collapsing Western order, and a steroid injection into Russia’s multipolar ascent. The empire’s toolkit is empty. What remains is narrative warfare, and even that is fraying at the seams.

Euroclear plans to seize and redistribute about 3 billion euros ($3.4 billion) of Russia’s funds that are frozen at the Belgian clearing firm after Moscow grabbed investor cash in Russia, according to documents seen by Reuters and people familiar with the matter.

The money will be used to compensate Western investors after Moscow seized cash held in Russia in recent months, three people said, escalating attempts by both sides to recoup billions in funds affected by the war in Ukraine.

Euroclear will redistribute 3 billion from a pool of 10 billion euros in cash belonging to Russian entities and individuals hit by European Union sanctions following Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, two of the people said.

The move, reported in detail here for the first time, marks a new level of reprisal by Europe. The European Union changed its sanctions regime late last year, allowing a disbursement to Western investors, in such circumstances.

In the past, the West has engineered loans and payments to Ukraine, opens new tab from the interest on frozen Russian assets, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has denounced as theft.

The planned Belgian payout was triggered by Russian government orders to confiscate billions from Western investors last year. Euroclear has been under pressure from international investors to release money. Reuters could not determine which of them would benefit from payout.

Euroclear has emphasised that it implements sanctions but the company does not take decisions about the shape of sanctions or their lifting.

The payments to Western investors won’t dip into the more than 200 billion euros of Russian central bank reserves that have been frozen in the EU, the two people said.

It will, however, reduce the stockpile of Russian wealth, that includes cash, shares and bonds, held almost entirely at Euroclear that gave the bloc leverage over Moscow. Some hoped frozen Russian assets could be used to rebuild Ukraine.

“It would represent a political decision to prioritise Western businesses over the taxpayer. Any frozen assets that don’t go to Ukraine’s reconstruction will … have to be covered by tax payers.”

Moscow has warned last year that it would retaliate if its frozen assets were seized and used for Ukraine and made a change in the law earlier this year, allowing it to do so.

In past months, Moscow has seized 3 billion euros of cash held by Euroclear at a depository in Russia to compensate Russian investors hit by Western sanctions, two of the people said.

Clearstream, an arm of the German stock exchange that like Euroclear warehouses securities such as stocks and bonds for traders, also found itself in a similar situation.

The Luxembourg-based firm will also make similar payouts from frozen Russian cash to Western investors but on a smaller scale, one person familiar with the matter said.

The sum concerned is several hundred million euros, the person said. Clearstream declined to comment.

Two people familiar with the case said it amounted to a swap of Western money frozen in Russia with Russian cash blocked in Europe, initiated by Moscow.

There are several hundred billion in foreign assets in Russia. I have always said it would make more sense to asset strip investors from countries who are hostile to Russia. and have them be compensated in the West from that money. Easiest way to free up that money and prevent it from ever getting into Ukrainian hands.

Zelensky promised to impose sanctions against countries helping Russia:

Russia will continue to fight. Now, of course, economic conditions in Russia have become more unfavorable because of the cost of oil – prices have dropped, but these are not yet the conditions under which Russia would consider war a fundamental problem.

We are preparing our sanctions packages, in particular those targeting entities and schemes in third countries that, unfortunately, help Russia circumvent some sanctions. We continue to strengthen our defense and expect new, significant defense packages for Ukraine in the near future and decisions on further cooperation with key countries both during and after the war.

Son of Finnish politician who fought for Ukrainian Armed Forces killed 

▪️Leo Aland, son of Jurka Aland, decided to become a mercenary, but did not last even 4 months in Ukraine.

▪️After signing a contract with the Ukrainian Armed Forces and completing training, he tried to return home, as evidenced by data from correspondence with relatives.

▪️The Finnish Foreign Ministry “expressed concern” that mercenaries cannot terminate contracts concluded with the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

➖”Aland sent his last message to his son on April 9. Four days later, he was preparing for his party’s election campaign when he received a message about his son’s death. The information came from comrades in arms. Ukrainian authorities have not confirmed anything,” the publication writes.

▪️Finnish mercenary killed by FPV drone strike, body left on battlefield.

▪️His father complains that he cannot bury his son.

Russian fighters broke through to Torskoye from the north, advancing towards Lyman

 In the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the “West” troop group are actively advancing, having broken through from the north – from Yampolovka to the important settlement of Torskoye. Fierce fighting continues.

Russian Army increases pressure in the direction of Konstantinovka, creating a number of threats to the Ukrainian Armed Forces

 ▪️The military analytical resource Deep State, which works for the Main Intelligence Directorate, writes about this in a new report.

▪️The Russian Armed Forces have increased the use of guided aerial bombs and fiber-optic drones, in which they have an advantage. “Unfortunately, we are still lagging behind in this area,” DS complains.

▪️The Russians are “stepping up the hunt for everything that moves in the city, as well as for logistics routes to the line of combat contact from the city, which is causing quite significant damage.”

▪️There is also a growing threat of the Russian Armed Forces reaching the west of Konstantinovka if the pace of advance of Russian troops continues in the area of ​​Sukha Balka and Novoolenovka.

➖“The exit to the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway in the Novoolenovka area may become a continuation of traffic to Konstantinovka from the western side, which will create an extremely unfavorable situation for both Konstantinovka and Toretsk,” writes Deep State.

▪️They also state the critical importance of holding the heights in Chasov Yar and Stupochki (where fighting is already underway), since if they are lost, Russian troops will be able to put the entire Konstantinovka agglomeration, “through which a significant part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ logistics passes,” under fire control.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/05/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-may_4.html