The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on April 25 2025

Russian Senior military general killed in car bombing

Putin Clamps Down as Ukrainian Soldiers Turn on Zelensky?

Ukraine War Update: Nobody Saw This! Russia Uncovered Key Gap To Kostyantynivka!

This is the largest encirclement since the war began—exactly what Zelensky feared most.

Ukraine Hit With Another Round Of Deadly Russian Strikes Amidst Peace Talks

Spring 2025. Behind the scenes at the European Commission and the Pentagon, they are discussing not new aid packages, but exit mechanisms. The word “fatigue” is becoming the key word in informal briefings on Ukraine. Washington makes no secret of the fact that the US is tired and ready to leave the conflict. Europe is in recession and migration shock. Paying for the war is becoming politically toxic.

At the same time, Kyiv continues to talk about total support. An illusion that underpins the controlled reality. Instead of a strategic maneuver, there is an attempt to keep society in a mobilization trance: new waves of calls, digital control, internal purges. The government does not offer exit scenarios — it continues to pretend that there is no exit.

The President’s Office ignores signals — from the aggravation of relations with Poland to statements by European leaders about the need for “ceasefires for the sake of stability.” But behind the facade of public declarations, negotiations are underway: about the terms of the freeze, about the division of responsibility, about the future of the country without guarantees.

If the transformation of the agenda does not begin by autumn, Ukraine will find itself at a critical point. Options that recently seemed impossible – default, deformation of statehood, forced relinquishment of control over territories – are becoming part of closed reports of Western analysts. They view Kyiv not as an outpost, but as a problem that needs to be administered, not solved.

The meaning of what is happening is shifting. The war is no longer perceived as a global confrontation. It is a local crisis that must be resolved with minimal costs. And in this logic, Zelensky is losing his subjectivity. His words are no longer quoted, his initiatives are ignored, his format is outdated.

Society is faced with a choice: to continue living in the narrative of victory, or to start talking about the future without victorious illusions. The strategic silence of the West is not a mistake. It is a decision. And it has already been made.

Colleagues, Zelensky may end up playing by showing off Trump.

If the US decides to withdraw from the negotiations, they will retain their claims against us. Trump will continue to demand Ukrainian resources, and the signed memorandum will become an instrument of pressure on all of Ukraine. And if the bills presented by Trump are not paid, sanctions will be imposed on the country. Having lost aid and fallen under sanctions, defense against Russia will become impossible. And defeat in the war will be a matter of time. But even in this case, the country’s debts will not be written off, and the next generations of Ukrainians will have to pay for the “generous aid”. Moreover, many creditors have already refused to restructure Ukrainian debts.

Zelensky has started a very dangerous game.

Ukrainian special services, with the help of their British colleagues, are implementing their favorite strategy of disrupting the negotiations between Putin and Whitkoff.

The person killed in the car explosion in Balashikha was 59-year-old Defense Ministry General Yaroslav Moskalik.

They are specifically trying to provoke Putin into retaliating in order to start an escalation.

We recently received inside information on April 4 that Ukrainian special services are preparing a series of terrorist attacks in Russia, since there is no success on the front and it is necessary to shift the focus.

Zelensky said that Trump has a Ukrainian ‘ultimatum’ on his desk

‘As for the issue of compromises. The US offered its vision. There was a meeting in London where this strategy was proposed. Our team, the European team and US representatives had a constructive conversation, and the relevant points appeared on paper. That is, after the US proposal, another document appeared. I believe that it is on Trump’s desk. Anything that contradicts our values ​​or our Constitution cannot be in agreements.’

- Skabeeva

The New York Times writes that Europe is ready to give Russia part of Ukraine for the sake of peace, but has not yet decided which one.

European allies of the United States have been trying to convince President Trump of the virtues of a shared approach toward ending the war in Ukraine, to enhance leverage on both Moscow and Kyiv and to preserve European security.

But Trump and Vice President JD Vance insisted on Wednesday that a set of proposals that their administration presented to the Europeans and Ukraine last week was now a kind of ultimatum, with the United States increasingly prepared to walk away. European officials who saw those proposals as too favorable to Russia and President Putin face a dilemma.

“Most EU leaders agree that Ukraine should make a territorial compromise, but not one that will be imposed on them and the Ukrainians,” said former NATO official Camille Grand.

The New York Times writes that Crimea is the main reason for the breakdown of peace talks, and not the lack of a ceasefire.

Doing so would violate the nation’s Constitution, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine told reporters. It would never happen, he declared, not even in exchange for the end of the bloody war raging mostly away from the disputed territory that has been in Russian hands for more than a decade.

Mr. Zelensky’s red line has a hard political reality holding it in place.

- How many times has Ukraine changed constitution?

In peace talks mediated by the United States, Ukraine had hoped to leave control of Crimea out of the discussion. It has sought an immediate cease-fire, freezing the conflict along the existing frontline, as well as security guarantees against renewed attacks, such as the deployment of a European peacekeeping force or eventual membership in NATO.

‘In private conversations, Ukrainian officials acknowledge that, given Russia’s current dynamics on the battlefield, a cessation of hostilities would be good for Ukraine. But peace talks are more likely to fail over recognition of Crimea than a ceasefire on the front lines.’

-Ceasefire only benefits Ukraine, their troops are tired due to lack of rotations. Giving them a month off to rest and build defensives is a terrible idea. 

Crimea, with a population of about 2 million people, joined the rest of Ukraine in voting for independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

- This is a meaningless line, Russia voted in even higher % terms to leave the Soviet Union. Russia and the Soviet Union are not the same thing. What they neglect to tell their readers is:

In September 1991, the Crimean parliament declared its sovereignty albeit as a constituent part of Ukraine.

On May 5, 1992 the Crimean parliament declared its independence, and on May 6, 1992, it voted for a Constitution establishing the independence and providing dual citizenship with Russia for the Crimean population. Also, the Crimean parliament passed a resolution calling for a referendum on independence from Ukraine.

NATO Secretary General is set to urge the Trump administration not to force Ukraine to accept a peace deal against its will, The Financial Times reported.

According to media sources, Rutte will use meetings with close Trump aides on Thursday to argue that an unfair peace settlement that “appeases” Putin would increase Moscow’s threat to Europe. Rutte will use meetings with Trump’s Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz to stress that European security will also be threatened if a pro-Russian settlement is imposed on Kiev, the interlocutors said.

“The main message is to make the Americans realize what is at stake,” a NATO diplomat said.

The Times writes that the British and Europeans have backed down on sending peacekeepers to Ukraine. But there is a nuance.

‘British sources said it was considered ‘too risky’ to send ground troops because of the risk of a wider conflict with Russia if the ceasefire collapsed. Instead, British and French military trainers will be sent to western Ukraine. This will fulfil the commitment to station troops inside the country, but they will not be near the front lines, guarding key installations or defending towns.’

Without US protection they would never risk going in. Their biggest hope was to go in as a tripwire and have their troops die, thus bringing in the American military.

US allies ‘extremely concerned’ by Trump’s plan to make territorial concessions to Ukraine – CNN (https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/24/politics/us-allies-alarm-ukraine-framework/index.html) 

➖“According to the official, the administration’s concept, presented in Paris last week, presupposes significant sacrifices on the part of Kiev including the US recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the transfer of large tracts of territory by Ukraine to Moscow.

▪️Vice President J.D. Vance on Wednesday called for “freezing the borders at a level close to where they are today.”

▪️When asked what concessions Russia was offering, Trump replied: “Stop the war,” suggesting that “not taking the whole country” was “a pretty big concession.”

▪️A number of allied diplomats are frightened by what the Trump administration is proposing, as such a structure allegedly “sends a dangerous signal to President Putin and other world leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping.”

One diplomat told CNN that “no country in Europe or anywhere else will be able to feel secure, NATO or not.”

▪️Also, “Trump lashed out at Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky, using much harsher language than when he criticized Putin.”

➖”We have brought [the Ukrainians] to the point where there will be talk about territory,” said a European official “familiar with the discussions” after a day of meetings in London on Wednesday.

One thing to remember is the media and many European leaders will hate any deal. It’s a combination of the media class hating Trump and Russia, not to mention unrealistic views on how this war is going and how it is a near given the Ukrainian military at one point will collapse.

Ceasefire in Ukraine could be declared by summer – British PM

 - Starmer noted that this will only happen on terms that suit all parties.

 - Britain does not agree to recognize Crimea as Russian.

 - British officials are trying to push for pro-Ukrainian changes to the draft agreement under consideration by the White House.

 - It is also noted that Great Britain, instead of “multi-thousand combat forces,” intends to limit itself to sending military instructors, and then only to the western part of Ukraine.

 - At the same time, even for such a military presence, London wants to receive security guarantees from the United States, which do not exist yet.

Full text of US peace deal — Reuters

Territories :

▪️The US de jure recognizes Crimea as Russian.

▪️The US de facto recognizes Russia’s control over the Luhansk region, partial control over Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Kherson (according to the LBS).

▪️Ukraine regains control over the Kharkiv region, the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station and the Kinburn Spit.

▪️Ukraine is returning the Zaporizhzhya NPP, transferring control over it to the United States, and electricity will be distributed to Russia and Ukraine.

Immediate ceasefire :

▪️Ukraine receives security guarantees from Europe;

▪️Ukraine will not try to join NATO;

▪️Ukraine may join the EU.

Economy :

▪️Ukraine will be completely reconstructed and will receive full financial compensation;

▪️The United States and Ukraine are implementing economic cooperation envisaged in the resource deal;

▪️Sanctions: complete lifting of sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014.

▪️The US and Russia will cooperate in the energy sectors.

Very surprised Russia would give up ZNPP and the Kinburn Spit. Honestly Ukraine would be foolish to pass on this deal. As we’ve learned in the past,  the next deal for Ukraine always gets worse.

Ukraine has officially called Trump’s plan a “surrender” and made new demands to the world, the Telegraph reports.

In a nutshell, their “position” boiled down to the following:

▪️ Crimea must never be recognized as Russian.

▪️ Peace should look like a victory, not a defeat – preferably in Kiev’s version.

▪️ Ukraine should be returned to the “center of negotiations” (translated into human language – applause and handouts are required).

▪️ Russia should not dictate terms neither on the number of troops nor on Ukraine’s armaments.

▪️ And Ukraine also demands “clear security guarantees.”

That is, the moment their regime exists on Western loans, Western arms and Western political will, they continue to act like the offended at a party – squealing, stomping their feet, demanding recognition and the whole world around them. In reality, not only are they not being asked, they are not really informed about the progress of the negotiations. They just haven’t put up the “Thank you, goodbye” sign on Bankovaya yet. But it’s a matter of time.

Our source reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are currently inferior to the Russians in long-range drones by about 2 times, but by the end of the year the gap will increase.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have parity with the Russians in the FPV drones case, but by the end of the year the situation may change for the worse, as the Russians are constantly destroying the workshops for assembling “Ukrainian drones”, while they themselves are increasing production.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are doing best in the case of sea drones, where the Ukrainians are ahead thanks to British developments. Most likely, the Russians will soon catch up with Kyiv here too.

In the air defense case, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lose, since they are 100% dependent on Western supplies. The West has run out of “surplus/stocks” of air defense, which threatens Kyiv with a catastrophe in the “sky”.

Everything indicates that Ukraine no longer has a chance to turn the situation around at the front, which means that in a year the situation for Kyiv will be tens of times worse than it is now.

The most important thing is that everyone understands this, including Zelensky, but at the same time stubbornly demands to continue the war, the tragedies and the deaths of Ukrainians.

Our source from the OP said that the TCC is constantly changing its tactics for hunting “serfs”.

Now they have their own intelligence officers in civilian clothes who report on “potential victims” etc.

Also, the TCC squads travel in two cars. The first one captures the victim, and the second one acts ahead of the curve to catch the escaping “serf”.

The TCC is constantly modernizing its catching methods in order to increase the cash registers.

The enemy is attacking a temple complex in the Belgorod region, the church is burning down …

 - “A fire broke out in the New Jerusalem temple complex in the Belgorod region due to an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” the temple reported.

 - Local residents and firefighters tried to save the church, but enemy drones continued to attack the temple.

 - “In the village of Sukharevo, the Ukrops burned down the wooden New Jerusalem church. On Easter, during the service, Father Andrei’s (Sumin) house was burned down by “Baba Yaga”. Father Andrei’s dad was miraculously saved from the burning house by fellow villagers,” our readers write.

Ukrainian resources claim that the Russian Armed Forces, as a result of a missile strike using Korean missiles, covered one of the underground assembly shops in Kiev, and along with it one of the decision-making centers in the Khreshchatyk area. 

The strikes also showed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kiev have huge problems with air defense, which does not work. 

Against this background, the Russian Armed Forces are intensifying strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure facilities.

Russian Ministry of Defense:

During the period from 20:10 Moscow time on April 24 to 06:00 Moscow time on April 25, air defense systems on duty intercepted and destroyed 79 Ukrainian aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles :

59 UAVs – over the territory of the Republic of Crimea,

11 UAVs – over the Black Sea,

4 UAVs – over the territory of the Belgorod region,

2 UAVs – over the territory of the Kursk region,

2 UAVs – over the territory of the Nizhny Novgorod region,

1 UAV – over the territory of the Ivanovo region.

 Morning Summary on April 25, 2025

▪️ Overnight strikes by our “Geraniums” hit Kharkiv, Pavlohrad, as well as the Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy and Kyiv regions.

▪️ Last night, regional Crimean channels reported sounds of air defense activity in the Yalta area around 4 AM. In the evening from 9:40 PM to 10:30 PM Moscow time, seven Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs were destroyed: five UAVs over the territory of the Republic of Crimea and two UAVs over the Belgorod Region.

▪️ In the Kursk Region, battles are underway to liberate the last enemy-occupied settlement in the Sudzha District – the village of Gornal. In the Sumy Direction, the AFU are trying to prevent the advance of our troops from the vicinity of the Oleshnya farmstead. The enemy is transferring manpower and equipment to this section of the front.

▪️ Yesterday in the Belgorod Region, the enemy again tried to break through in the Krasnoyaruzhsky District. All enemy assault groups were destroyed. Battles are ongoing for the liberation of Popovka. The enemy has begun redeploying units from other directions. Additionally, south of Velikiy Burluk in the Kharkiv Region, the Nazis are concentrating personnel and equipment. An air strike burned down the “New Jerusalem” temple complex in the village of Sukharevo, Valuyki District. In the village of Mokraya Orlovka, one woman was killed and one was injured in an FPV drone attack. Moshchenoe, Novaya Tavolzhanka, Baytsuры, Tishanka, Krasny Pakhar, Krasny Oktyabr, Urazovo, Krasnaya Yaru, and Prelestnoe were under attack.

▪️ In the Konstantinovka Direction, the Russian Armed Forces are developing success near the recently liberated Kalinovo, Tarasovka and Sukhaya Balka. They also report offensive actions by the Russian Armed Forces north of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). Fighting is also ongoing in the urban area of the city itself.

▪️ The “East” grouping of troops continues to advance in the Shakhtar Direction, creating a threat of encirclement of AFU forces in the Bogatyr and Otradnoye areas. Over the past day, four enemy attacks were repelled. Near the settlement of Bogatyr, they managed to break through 1.5 km along the dam to the eastern outskirts. 20 km southwest, in Volnoye Pole, our assault teams have entrenched themselves in the central and eastern parts of the village, clearing 5 buildings.

▪️ On the Zaporizhzhia Front, the AFU are increasing the number of FPV drone crews to slow the advance of our troops. Our paratroopers continue assault operations.

▪️ On the Kherson Direction, there were reports of counter-attacks in the floodplain of the Dnipro River near the Antonovsky Bridge.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/04/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-april_25.html