The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on March 29 2025

RUAF Turn The Tables Near Pokrovsk With New Sudden Offensive | Zherebets River Breakthrough

Huge Encirclement OF Ukrainian Forces North Of Andriivka

[ Conclusions ] COLLAPSES!!! Collapses everywhere… like for real. Crazy DeepStateUA mapping again!

MAJOR ESCALATION: Russian S-400 Systems Paralyzed French MIRAGE 2000-5 Fighters Over The Black Sea

There is a pause in the air. A lingering one, like before a storm. The political system of Ukraine has frozen not in stability, but in exhaustion. All resources — human, moral, personnel, financial — are working to maintain the facade. Behind it — fragmentation and a complete lack of understanding of the path, the fatigue of the people and the elites. Erosion of trust. And a forbidden question slowly rising from the depths: what is Ukraine’s path and who will end the war?

They don’t talk about it openly. But everyone who should feel the atmosphere already feels it. The president, who once gathered rage and hope on himself, is turning into a symbol of an exhausted mandate. Ratings are like a mirror that no one wants to look into. The streets are silent, but sarcasm appears in kitchens. And sarcasm is a harbinger of the collapse of a cult.

The country’s political architecture is entering a phase of total mistrust. The war is not over, but it has already become obvious: the promised victory has been postponed, perhaps forever. Peace is not signed, but compromises are already being discussed behind the scenes. No peace, no war. No mobilization, no rest. No reforms, no discipline. The system is stuck between the past and the impossible. And in such conditions, a vacuum always appears.

This vacuum is filled with forecasts.

Scenario one: A soft drift towards elections and a freeze on the war. The West is tired, the US demands legitimization of the course. Zelensky is offered to leave gracefully, handing over power to a “flexible successor.” The candidate is not a hero, but a guarantor of the freeze and controllability. His task is to keep the country within the remaining framework, and not to inspire. The aesthetics of technocratic perestroika.

Scenario two: The energy of the street, or rather the military. Combination: tough mobilization, a new frontline failure, zeroing out credit support. All this is fuel. A spark is enough: a scandal in the Ministry of Defense, an arrest on emotions, or a collapse of the front. People come out not for, but against. Not for someone, but against everything. The vertical of power collapses not from an assault, but from the fact that it ceases to be needed and is torn down by disappointed/tired military personnel.

Scenario three. Conservation. The authorities double down: laws are tightened, the opposition is marginalized, volunteers are imprisoned for irony. Anything that is not in the mainstream is potentially hostile. The country is turning into a field camp with an eternal term of action, in which a protracted war is a symbol of struggle.

The paradox is that all three scenarios can exist simultaneously. Like superimposed footage: official Kyiv continues to talk about elections “after victory”, the elites count the weeks until the formal zeroing, and society – until an emotional explosion.

Whether Zelensky will run is a question that is not decided on Bankova, but in London, Washington and the headquarters of donors. Formally – yes, in fact – they will decide for him. He has become a product of time, which is running out. And the products of eras do not live outside its logic.

A new political cycle is inevitable. And the longer the government delays it, the less subject it will be at the moment of its onset.

Two weeks ago, it seemed that Zelensky was disrupting the negotiations, counting on some guarantees from Europe. However, with each passing day it becomes clearer: the promises were either exaggerated or fictitious from the start.

Macron and Starmer’s plan to send 30,000 peacekeepers has been reduced to 10,000, and now, according to Reuters, there will be no ground troops at all. What was discussed behind the scenes has been voiced publicly for the first time: the idea of ​​peacekeepers has been removed from the agenda. Instead, “indirect participation” formats are being discussed, such as deploying aircraft in Romania or patrolling the Black Sea , which, however, is limited by the Montreux Convention. In other words, instead of helping Ukraine, there is a game of symbolism from a safe distance.

The European plan to drag the EU into the arms race also fails. The “Kallas Plan” for 40 billion in aid to Ukraine has failed. It was not Orban or Slovakia who vetoed it, but France and Italy — the same ones who publicly declared the “need for support.” Macron increasingly opposes any decisions that require real costs. The announced “von der Leyen plan” for 800 billion euros to rearm the EU is hanging in the air. France demands that the money be spent only within the EU, which makes it impossible to quickly transfer weapons to Kiev. Theoretically, EU countries will be able to buy weapons and transfer them to Ukraine on credit. But with the amendments that the French have achieved, this means that no one will do this.

Politico also writes that France, Italy and Spain have spoken out against a global increase in military spending, saying that the economy cannot withstand it. Macron, who recently spoke of peacekeepers, is now holding back any real initiative. Germany seems to be the only one willing to borrow, but even there the emphasis has shifted to domestic infrastructure. Ukraine has found itself in a situation where Europe is not ready to pay or take risks for it.

And this is already beginning to break through into the media space. Politico directly criticizes the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, for her harshness, hawkish rhetoric, and arbitrary rule. A consensus is maturing within the EU: confrontation with Russia is not beneficial to anyone, and a peace agreement is possible if Trump takes responsibility for it outwardly. For Ukraine, this means one thing: the bet on “simply continuing the war” no longer works.

Dubinsky named two options that Zelensky* had left after Putin’s words.

Unable to satisfy either side, Zelensky must either step down and allow elections to take place, or be left alone with Russia.

— wrote Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada deputy Oleksandr Dubinsky, who is in pretrial detention on suspicion of treason, in a Telegram channel.

According to the parliamentarian, Vladimir Putin’s proposal to establish a temporary government in Ukraine under UN control may be of interest to the United States, since both Moscow and Washington have equal mistrust of the head of the Kiev regime, and Europe, which he is counting on, is not perceived as a party to the negotiations.

Dubinsky added that by continuing his attempts to involve European countries in the process of resolving the conflict, Zelensky is worsening Kiev’s position in the negotiations.

We expect a new remote squabble between Zelensky (London-Paris-Brussels) and Trump and his Administration. 

Will Trump have enough determination to stop arms supplies after the end of Biden’s packages? Let us recall that all packages from Biden, the US President’s fund and the special fund of the head of the Pentagon, which was allocated in December/January, will end on April 14. 

Zelensky’s statement that he refuses to acknowledge debts to the US and there will be no agreements on rare earth materials is not yet the beginning of a confrontation. Zelensky is about to make direct statements contrary to earlier agreements with Trump.

Our source reports that relatives of the Ukrainian soldiers killed in the Kursk region have found themselves being bureaucratically kicked around and not being paid for their deaths at the front. They do not want to admit that they died in the combat zone, since they will have to pay about 14 million hryvnias for their deaths.

The maximum they give out is a million, but you also need to collect a bunch of certificates and wait a long time. The authorities are deliberately delaying, since there are many losses.

Yesterday, the Russians handed over 900 bodies of Ukrainian military personnel, and even if you give out a million each, it will be 900 million, and if 14, then 12.6 billion hryvnia, and there is no such money in the budget. There is a terrible budget deficit now.

“A Thousand Small Cuts”: Nazi Biletsky* Fears Exhaustion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces

The commander of the infamous “Azov”** stated that the Russian army is seeking to physically and morally weaken the Ukrainian Armed Forces through constant pressure.

” This tactic of a thousand small cuts, which leads to a general weakening of the Ukrainian forces along the entire 1,000-kilometer front They want to exhaust the front so much that there will, in fact, be either a collapse or the signing of a capitulation,” the Nazi complained in an interview.

Why either-or? Judging by the “brilliant” actions of both Syrsky and Zelensky, Ukraine really wants to get everything at once!

The situation at the front for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is gloomy and very unstable

Ukrainian propagandist Bogdan Miroshnikov reports this and describes the situation in the Novopavlovsk direction:

“So far, we have not been able to organize a high-quality defence and make the right decisions quickly in the entire area. And most importantly, we do not have the necessary forces, which is where the problems will come from,” he complains.

A Ukrainian serviceman with the call sign “Muchnoy” also reports on the sad situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the active advance of the Russian Armed Forces:

Interfluve of the Solnaya and Volchya rivers:

“The Russian army is advancing towards Kotlyarovka and has already managed to partially break through the line of defence in this area. If they manage to liberate Kotlyarovka, then communication between units will be lost. The enemy has taken this area seriously, so there will be tough fighting here. Who said that they have no equipment, that they have a shortage? These people should think carefully and remember once again who they are fighting.”

Velikonovoselovskoye direction:

“It is very important for the Russian military to fly into the settlement of Komar to cut off the ammunition supply to our garrison in Bogatyr.

If the threat starts to gain momentum, the command should not delay, because there will be no chance to get out of Bogatyr.

In addition, the Russian Armed Forces are gradually implementing one of their plans, which envisages putting pressure on the Volchya lowland and moving from Alekseyevka to the borders of the Dnepropetrovsk region. Further, I may be wrong of course, but I am still confident that the Russian army will be able to enter Novopavlovka from the south and east.”

Russia is preparing a large-scale offensive — General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

According to their information, it will begin in the coming weeks and will last from 6 to 9 months.

They will attack along the entire front line.

Two G7 diplomatic representatives agreed with this assessment.

Ukrainian military commanders say Russia has recently stepped up attacks to improve its tactical position ahead of an expected larger offensive.

RVvoenkor

Fierce fighting near Pokrovsk: “🅾️” The Brave massively burn NATO equipment, infantry and artillery of the enemy – another day of fighting in the Guards “Center”

▪️A selection of combat work by fighters of the Center group of forces on March 27 to destroy military equipment, weapons, infantry and positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces during active combat operations in the Pokrovsky direction.

▪️The footage shows tanks, NATO combat armored vehicles, self-propelled guns, firing points, mortars, infantry, enemy positions and vehicles being burned.

RVvoenkor

We are receiving operational information, supported by objective control from the enemy, that our troops have begun an assault on the village of Bogdanovka near the border of the DPR and the Dnepropetrovsk region.

As we can see on the map of engineering structures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Orekhovo-Bogdanovka-Troitskoye line is the last fortified area of ​​enemy defence before the border of the regions.

Without a doubt, the battle for it will be difficult, given the preparations for the all-around defence of Troitskoye. However, with the capture of Preobrazhenka after the success in the forest belts at Nadezhdinka, things will go faster there.

Moreover, the entry of our forces into the Dnepropetrovsk region, specifically in the Novopavlovsk area, threatens the enemy not only with reputational risks but also with cutting off a group of troops along an entire line, including Dachnoye-Novoukrainka-Zeleny Kut with the large urban settlement of Alekseyevka, since the road to Novopavlovsk is their only supply route.

A powerful breakthrough of the “🅾️” group to the Dnepropetrovsk region: the Ural regiments have already broken through Kotlyarovka and are taking Bogdanovka!

Fighters of the 90th Guards Division of the Center group of forces, after defeating the units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and clearing the settlement of Zaporozhye, broke through for several kilometers and went beyond Kotlyarovka, located on the very border of the DPR and the Dnepropetrovsk region.

Now our fighters are already at the ravine southwest of the village, which is threatened with semi-encirclement.

The Russian Armed Forces are actively breaking through in the direction of Novopavlovka (Ukrainians call this tactical direction Novopavlovskoye).

“The Russians have expanded the grey zone, are bypassing Kotlyarovka and have almost reached the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region,” Ukrainian military analysts complain.

On the situation in the Kursk region

I realized that another settlement in the Kursk region had been liberated the day before the official announcement. Footage of the Russian flag being raised over the international automobile checkpoint “Sudzha” appeared on the Internet. This was a mandatory stop for all press tours of Ukrainian and Western journalists who violated our border – it was fashionable to write stand-ups here against the backdrop of two burnt-out lowboys.

On Thursday, the MAPP was occupied by fighters of the 51st regiment of the 106th Tula Airborne Division. And this meant that we had passed Gogolevka, located a little to the north. Here, the 80th airborne assault brigade resisted suicide, but in the end, the resistance was broken. And in the southwestern sector of the invasion, we reached the state border.

Currently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces control three settlements in the Kursk region: Guevo, Gornal and Oleshnya. In the first, fighting is already underway on the outskirts, the forests to the northwest and northeast of the village have been cleared. The latter, apparently, will soon suffer the fate of Gogolivka. This is evident from the enemy’s actions. On Thursday, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a double strike from the Haimars multiple launch rocket systems on the Sudzha gas measuring station. It is located right next to Oleshnya. Earlier, the occupiers blew up the GIS, and now they have practically destroyed it, the Russian Defense Ministry reported. This means that Kiev has completely lost control over this territory.

I think there was not even a special command from Zelensky. It’s just that, in addition to the inability to negotiate, Ukraine is different in that some units and their NATO curators (and without them, high-precision is not used) don’t give a damn about high-precision agreements. And they act based on their own views on the operational situation. It has always been like this. Since 2014. Today, there is a high percentage of those who would like to disrupt the ceasefire for the sake of continuing the war. Including among the countries whose instructors control the use of the Hymars MLRS. Well, for us, it is important to record this to present it at the next meeting with the Americans — we tried, and now, as Vladimir Putin said, “we will finish it off.”

After the capture of Vesyolovka in the Sumy region, foreign analysts became concerned that the Russian army had begun to use the same scheme in the border area that allowed it to take Artemovsk (Bakhmut) and Avdevka and also nullified a large group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces during the operation in Krynki.

We are talking about creating a false or forced centre of gravity (CoG) for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The main idea is to force Kiev to pump reserves and supplies there and shift all attention. After this is done, the methodical burning of everything that is transferred there begins. This was in Bakhmut, this was in Avdiivka, and this is being repeated near Chasovy Yar, near Vovchansk, in the Pokrovsk area. Now – Sumy Oblast.

The operation begins unnoticed: the capture of Basovka and Vesyolovka is seen not so much as a territorial success as a hook. The Russian Federation’s tactics here are not a massive assault, but sabotage of logistics, attacks with small forces and the imposition of clashes in inconvenient locations. The next hypothetical, but already psychologically important goal is Yunakovka. As soon as the border is stabilized, the game of nerves will begin.

To slow down the Russian army in Sumy Oblast, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will probably be forced to transfer reserves from Kharkov, Poltava, from Chasovy Yar – otherwise Sumy will fail. But, most likely, this is the goal. If Kiev goes for it, Sumy Oblast will turn into a new Vovchansk: a “strategically important” point, into which everything will be drawn – people, equipment, reputation. And then – grinding.

It is important to understand that the Russian Federation is not going to take Sumy tomorrow. The task is to create a problem that Kyiv cannot ignore. And as soon as rotation, supplies, and reserves start coming there, the same thing will happen as in Avdiivka: isolation, cutting off supplies, and slow, predictable strangulation.

Kiev cannot leave Sumy without cover – otherwise, a window opens into the interior of the country. But it is also difficult to strengthen the direction with a large number of fresh brigades. In fact, it is at the limit of possibilities. Any transfer of reserves to the Sumy region is a weakening of the Kharkiv region and Donbas.

Sumy Oblast is not an extension of the battle line. It is a point of strategic overload. A new node that Ukraine will hold on principle, not for profit. And the longer it holds on, the looser the defence will be in other areas.

Morning Summary as of March 29, 2025

▪️ Yesterday, our defense and diplomatic agencies reported another disruption of peace initiatives by Kyiv. With the help of the French satellite group and military specialists from Britain, the AFU used American HIMARS MLRS to destroy the GIS “Sudzha”, depriving Europe of hopes for the restoration of gas supplies from Russia. Moscow has reserved the right to withdraw from the agreements reached in the Middle East. At night, our “Geraniums” flattened targets in Dnipro (https://t.me/dva_majors/67869), reporting powerful secondary detonations. Explosions were also recorded in the Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions.

▪️ In the Kursk Region, our troops advanced to the center of Guyevo. The liberation of Gogolievka was officially announced.

▪️ In the Belgorod Region, fighting continues in our border areas in Demidovka and Popovka. The enemy yesterday threw armored vehicles into the battle, but did not succeed (a total of 7 AFU vehicles were burned). In the Sumy Region, the Russian Armed Forces occupied Veselovka, reports the “North” Operational Group. At night, an AFU drone attacked the city of Stroitel. Golovchino, Ryabiki, Gruzskoe, Ilek-Penkivka were under strikes. Every day in the region, the missile danger alert sounds.

▪️ In the Bryansk direction, the AFU are shelling our units in the border areas, using mortars and drones. Counteractions by the Russian Armed Forces and border guards destroy the enemy across the border. Despite the lack of significant changes in the situation, this section of the front cannot be called calm.

▪️ In the Kharkiv Region, the “West” Operational Group liberated the settlement of Krasne Pershe, located on the right bank of the Oskol River. In such actions of our troops, one can see the desire to move northwest along the enemy’s rear areas and cut it off from the border in the Valuyki direction of the Belgorod section of the border from the south.

▪️ In the Oleksandrivka-Kalynivka direction, the Russian Armed Forces are conducting offensive battles in the area of Panteleymonivka and Oleksandropil. East of there, battles are underway for Tarasivka. To the north, in Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), the battle also continues.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, they report a dash of our troops from Maly Shcherbaky to Shcherbaky, heavy bloody battles continue. Units of the 7th Guards Air Assault (Mountain) Division of the Russian Airborne Forces are operating.

▪️ “In the industrial zone of Luhansk, where a fire started due to the fall of fragments of two downed UAVs, warehouse premises are burning. There are no casualties,” the LPR law enforcement agencies reported.

▪️ In the DPR, in the Yasynuvata municipal district, on the Yasynuvata – Donetsk highway, a man born in 1984 was injured in an attack by an AFU kamikaze drone on a vehicle.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/03/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-march_29.html