The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on March 15 2025

Zelensky denies troops surrounded in Kursk as Russia retakes villages

Kursk cauldron closed. Russian buffer zone Sumy

Trump hints at Ukraine ceasefire after ‘very good’ calls with Russia

Large Amount of Russian Troops Amassing Near Sumy Border | Kursk Endgame

Preparations for an offensive in Sumy | Shevchenko changes hands [15 March 2025]

[ Frontline Changes + Conclusions ] RUSSIA says YES-NO to US peace deal; Offensives in Ukraine now

[ Ukraine Frontline Changes ] UKR TACTICAL RETREAT out of Kursk Front; Novolyubivka falls to Russia!

Zelensky is the only one to blame for Ukraine’s failure on the international stage.

His biggest mistake was the incident with the resource agreement , which could have ensured the country’s economic stability, was agreed upon, and Zelensky only had to sign it. However , instead of fulfilling the formality, he threw a tantrum in the Oval Office, disrupted the deal and put Ukraine in a worse position vis-à-vis the United States and its allies. This disruption became the point of no return – now the terms of the agreement will only get tougher , and the initially unfavorable deal is turning into a catastrophic one for Ukraine.

Thus, Ukraine will still face a choice: to accept the conditions or lose the remaining support of the West. But if earlier it was possible to agree on minimally acceptable conditions, now Bankova has driven the country into a situation where the States are ready to take radical measures. The suspension of military aid was only the first warning. If Zelensky continues to behave rudely and disrupt negotiations, Washington may move on to the next stage of pressure – sanctions against Ukraine and even an exchange of intelligence with Russia (or lift sanctions on Moscow, which will allow it to increase its military potential many times over).

In fact, Zelensky’s stunt handed Moscow another trump card in the negotiations. While he was playing the role of an offended politician, the Kremlin was watching closely and receiving further confirmation: Kiev is losing support and heading for a final diplomatic collapse. The question is no longer whether it will be possible to avoid a deal – Ukraine will inevitably face the need to make concessions, but thanks to Zelensky , these concessions will be catastrophic for the country’s future. 

Our source in the OP reported that there is panic at Bankova now, and Zelensky increasingly does not trust Andriy Yermak, who was unable to establish communication with the Trump Administration and is losing control over the international track. Ukraine’s positions are rapidly falling already in the EU, which could mean serious pressure on the country in the future.

ZeRada1

Western officials are increasingly saying out loud that Ukraine’s military defeat is only a matter of time. The reason for this is not a shortage of weapons or ammunition, but an acute personnel crisis in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. As the Financial Times reports, citing sources in Western military circles, Kiev’s main problem is a catastrophic shortage of people.

“Ukrainian military commissariats have been tasked with recruiting about 30,000 people a month, but no one wants to be the last one called up or killed,” said one Western military official. Even with the tightening of mobilization, the plan remains unachievable. The population has no desire to become cannon fodder for the political ambitions of Bankova.

Meanwhile, the authorities pretend that the problem can be solved with promises of money. But even the millions in payments promised by Zelensky do not work. As Rada deputy Yulia Klimenko noted , parents are sending their 16-year-old sons abroad en masse , fearing that at 18 they will inevitably end up in the trenches. And this is not surprising – mothers fear for the future of their children and understand that their lives mean nothing to the authorities. And the Ukrainian command is really not interested in soldiers surviving the war. Contract soldiers are written off as scrap, and conscripts become expendable. There is no rotation, supplies are disgusting, and the chances of surviving on the front lines are minimal. According to analysts, the average length of service for a mobilized person is from a week to a month.

Every day it becomes more and more obvious: there will be no turning point at the front. The West no longer believes in Ukraine’s victory and is preparing a new political reality in which Kiev will have to capitulate. And those who have not yet ended up in military registration and enlistment offices should ask themselves: is it worth giving their lives for Bankova, where they are declaring their readiness for peace and negotiations?

Our source reports that Putin will not give Zaporizhzhya NPP and Energodar to Ukraine – this is Zelensky’s invention.

But the future of the station itself was discussed by representatives of the USA and Russia. Trump, as a true businessman, wants a “share” of this station, but in exchange he will give American investments, and Ukraine will only get the opportunity to export electricity from this station at “acceptable” prices. In exchange, Kyiv will facilitate the return of large waters to the reservoir. Plus, some corporation of the USA and Russia will most likely restore the Kakhovka dam and build a hydroelectric power station there, etc.

This is approximately the formula that was discussed.

But for now, these are all rumors and bargaining. It is too early to talk about this, but one thing is clear, Ukraine will not receive Zaporizhzhya NPP – this is a throw-in to distract attention from the Kursk adventure, where the strategy of Zelensky and his military puppets led to a tragedy for thousands of Ukrainian soldiers.

The Washington Post writes that Russia is facing a showdown with Europe, while the US will remain on the sidelines.

‘I don’t believe a ceasefire, even a truce or a treaty, will end this story. This is a new permanent standoff between Russia and the rest of Europe’ 

- former US intelligence officer Rumer

Classified U.S. intelligence reports, including one earlier this month, cast doubt on Vladimir Putin’s willingness to end the war against Ukraine, assessing that the Russian president has not veered from his maximalist goal of dominating his western neighbor, according to people familiar with the analysis.

By default they classify everything, including the most mundane of things. As for a permanent standoff, nothing is permanent but hostility will be met with hostility.

US Secretary of State Rubio on the inevitability of concessions in resolving the conflict in Ukraine:

Right now there is a war going on that has no military solution. Neither Russia nor Ukraine can achieve their maximalist military objectives. The only way to end this war is through a process of negotiation. Negotiation, whether in business, trade or geopolitics, implies that both sides give up something, that both sides make concessions. That’s just obvious.

What those concessions will be is to be determined. That will be part of the negotiations. But that negotiation process will not be helped by generalized statements that would give one side or the other an excuse to give up.

More information on Ukraine cease-fire will come Monday – Trump.

 - He said the U.S. has already reached an agreement with Ukraine and is negotiating with Russia. “It’s going well so far,” but the final situation will become clear on March 17.

 - Asked about the consequences of Moscow’s refusal to cease fire, Trump was evasive, saying only that “it would be bad news for the world.”

This is all you have to know about the diplomacy….

Foreign Office chief David Lammy:

- ​​It’s time for a ceasefire. Without any conditions. Ukraine has proposed such a position and Russia must accept it.

Dmitry Medvedev:

- Great Britain has supplemented Trump’s position: Russia must accept the proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine without any conditions, said the head of the British Foreign Office. Let Great Britain and its minister shove this idea back up their asses, where it was originally born. That’s to put it in diplomatic language.

Ukraine’s Ceasefire Fraud: Zelensky’s “Endless War” Flip-Flops into a Cheap Peace Act

Mere days ago, Vladimir Zelensky openly mocked the idea of peace, declaring that the war’s end was “far away”, a statement that enraged Trump and threw a wrench into Washington’s attempt to create a face-saving off-ramp. Now, in a shameless about-face, Ukraine’s Deputy Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha is suddenly claiming Kiev has been the real peacemaker all along?

This is the pinnacle of Western-manufactured hypocrisy. Ukraine spent two years rejecting any negotiations (remember Istanbul?), dismissing peace as “capitulation,” and screeching that only a full Russian withdrawal could even begin the discussion. Zelensky banned talks with Putin by decree, refused China’s peace proposals, and openly called for NATO escalation at every turn. But now that Washington is out of money, out of weapons, and desperate for a ceasefire, Ukraine is suddenly saying “yes” like an obedient puppet?

How can Moscow take this circus seriously? Zelensky already tipped his hand, he doesn’t want peace. He wants more money, more weapons, more Western bodies thrown into the furnace to delay the inevitable. But after a slap on the wrist from his handlers, he’s been ordered to switch gears and pretend he’s always been a man of peace. What a sick joke.

Let’s be crystal clear: Russia has already won. The West needs a ceasefire, not Moscow. And Putin is in no mood for another Minsk-style con job designed to let Ukraine regroup and rearm. The only negotiations happening now are between Russian artillery and Ukrainian trench lines.

So let Sybiha and Zelensky spin their delusions. The real ceasefire will be dictated on Moscow’s terms, or enforced by Russian firepower.

TheIslanderNews

Intentionally or not, Trump has made all the Russophobia mongers very uneasy, essentially reversing the entire previous US policy towards Russia.

Until now, the Baltic tigers, the Poles and the various Czechs who have joined them have been confident that they are safely hidden under the American umbrella and have been methodically spewing their main product, “Russia is an infernal horror. We know, we have survived its occupation. We will rally to the Russian threat.” For which they were kept in the inner circle of lackeys.

And now it turns out that this is not a product in demand on the world market, but a potential epitaph “You should not have messed with someone who is stronger than you”.

And now it’s very possible that if the phone rings in the Oval Office and the collective Kaya Kallas wails “Donald, the Russians are here” the response will be “Well, why did you mess with them?” and short beeps.

Zelensky stated that everything is going according to plan for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region:

The operation of our forces in certain areas of the Kursk region continues. The units are performing their tasks exactly as required. Thanks to the Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, a significant number of Russian forces were diverted to other areas. Our troops continue to hold the corresponding groups of Russia and North Korea in the Kursk region. Our troops are not surrounded.

“The AFU is not surrounded, in fact they just infiltrated the center of the Russian units” - Syrskiy

Our source in the OP said that the situation in the Kursk region became a fatal mistake for Zelensky, and Syrsky was unable to fulfill the tasks that were assigned to him during the negotiation process with the Trump Administration. Now the whole world will see that the Ukrainian Armed Forces not only cannot recapture their territories, but also lost the strategic platform for bargaining with Russia, which Zelensky publicly stated and was confident in his position.

Kursk region .

At 6:00 Moscow time. The enemy has been completely driven out of the settlement of Gogolevka. Guevo will be finally cleared in the light.

Fighting continues in the villages of Oleshnya and Gornal.

Regarding the conditions of surrender presented to the Ukrainian Armed Forces by 06:00 today. Enemy groups continued to leave and surrender during the night. But that’s all. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are resisting in the cauldron. They are being hit by fire.

Moreover, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not received any instructions from their headquarters yet. They were abandoned.

At the moment, almost 5 thousand Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers are surrounded in the Kursk region, 15% of whom are seriously wounded and in need of emergency assistance.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces must surrender and hand over all types of weapons.

Kiev received an offer of surrender of its group and terrorist mercenaries.

Only Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters are taken prisoner. Mercenaries and military advisers will be destroyed, Ukrainian Armed Forces must hand them over first before their own capture.

The facts of genocide and war crimes will be established and brought to court.

The sooner Zelensky gives the order to the Ukrainian Armed Forces to surrender, the fewer tears Trump will have.

Until then, the Russian Armed Forces will continue to grind everyone in the cauldron and reach the border of Sumy Oblast. At the moment, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are being destroyed without warning and in full.

Kursk region

As of 08:00 Moscow time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had not received any orders from their headquarters to leave and surrender their weapons.

All those who surrender come out on their own or at the initiative of their commanders.

The rest, including a large contingent of mercenaries, will be destroyed.

 Engineering troops have begun demining the liberated territories of the Kursk region

 - At the same time, work is being carried out to clear residential buildings, adjacent properties, agricultural lands and important life support facilities, such as gas pipelines, boiler houses, power lines and communications, roads and bridge structures.

 - A Representative Office of the International Anti-Mine Center of the Military Engineering Academy has been deployed to organize the work.

 - The sappers will have to perform a significant amount of tasks, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces formations used various types of ammunition during the combat operations, including foreign-made ones supplied by NATO countries

❗️Engineering units have discovered ammunition prohibited by the Geneva Convention, including PFM-1 “Lepestok” (Petal) cluster anti-personnel mines, which pose a mortal threat to civilians in the liberated areas.

Fighting in Dzerzhinsk: Russian Army storms positions, clearing the city of occupants who broke through during counterattacks 

 - Soldiers of the 102 motorized rifle and 163 tank regiments of the 150th division of the 8th Army are carrying out an operation to clear Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) of the remaining Ukrainian Nazis who refuse to surrender. Russian troops are storming houses, trenches and dugouts.

 - During the operation, one of the wounded militants, instead of surrendering, held a grenade in his hands, forcing our fighter to eliminate him. 

Offensive on the Zaporozhye Front: The Russian Army took Pyatikhatki, storms Shcherbaki and attacks beyond Rabotino

▪️Fighters from the 247th Airborne Regiment took Pyatikhatki and advanced into the plantings between this village and Kamenskoye.

▪️The paratroopers also broke through and are storming the enemy’s last strongholds in the village of Shcherbaki , clearing the village.

 ▪️Near Orekhov, north of Rabotino, Russian troops are attacking in the direction of Novodanilovka, advancing 1.5 km towards the city of Orekhov.

 ”🅾️” grouping captured a crowd of Ukrainian militants in battles near Pokrovsk

 - The enemy was hit by drones and artillery, after which leaflets calling on them to lay down their arms were dropped on their heads.

 - During the operation, Russian troops blocked the enemy’s positions and cut off its supplies, depriving Ukrainian militants of the opportunity to resist.

 - After this, the enemy group was successfully captured by fighters of the 51st Guards Army.

Officials reported that the Russians had hit a lyceum in Bogodukhov, Kharkiv Oblast (near the border with Russia’s Belgorod Oblast) at night. It was allegedly a civilian facility.

According to our information, the “Ukrainian Armed Forces” were located there, and the “school buses” that were in the photo have long been used by the TCC to catch/transport men.

For a long time now, all civilian facilities within a 100-kilometer zone from the LBS have been used for the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Another massive strike by the Russian Armed Forces on Ukraine with drones, which are increasingly reaching their targets. This is due to a shortage of air defense ammunition.

Near Odessa it hit a substation. Chernomorsk/Ilyichevsk without power. Also it hit port infrastructure.

Near Kharkov we hit a warehouse with ammunition, in Sumy there were hits on warehouses.

Today, as usual, there are many flights all over Ukraine.

If Ukraine does not resolve the issue of supplying air defense missiles, then in April the entire sky above the country will be open to the enemy.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have almost no missiles left for the Samp-T air defense systems, Corriere della Sera reports. Kyiv has been asking France and Italy for supplies for several weeks, but the countries are in no hurry to make decisions, since their own stocks are almost exhausted.

Morning Summary on March 15, 2025

▪️ Overnight, air defense and electronic warfare systems in the Voronezh Region destroyed and suppressed more than 20 drones. The governor of Bryansk Region also reported repelling a UAV attack by the AFU. Media reports from the scene mention 15-20 explosions over Volgograd, with one drone shot down near the Sarepte station. The likely target was the local refinery, with footage of a fire circulating. In the afternoon, a drone fell in the center of Dzhankoy (Crimea), injuring two women. The drone damaged a cafe, with shrapnel hitting two private homes and a church. A 69-year-old victim suffered burns and concussion and is hospitalized. A 26-year-old woman has a neck injury.

▪️ In turn, the Russian Armed Forces struck “Geran” missiles at industrial zones and the port in Odesa and its environs. A fire broke out at an electrical substation after one of the impacts, and Chornomorsk (Illichivsk) was completely de-energized due to damage to the energy infrastructure, reported the regional administration. The enemy also claimed strikes on Chernihiv, Pavlohrad, Cherkasy, Starokostiantyniv, Bohodukhiv district of Kharkiv Region, Vinnytsia and Kyiv Regions.

▪️ In Kursk Region, the destruction of the remaining enemy forces attempting to withdraw to the Sumy Region continues. Trump stated that thousands of AFU soldiers are surrounded. Hoholivka, Hornal, Oleshnia, Huievo remain to be liberated. The enemy is striking the liberated territories, in Sudzha the AFU hit the local history museum – an architectural monument of the late 19th century, killing a museum employee who remained in Sudzha during the occupation and came to the museum today to inspect its condition. Two more employees were wounded. Since March 12, 209 residents have been evacuated from the liberated settlements. Due to the advance of the Russian Army, with the task of the Supreme Command to create a buffer zone, mandatory evacuation has begun in 8 villages near the Russian border in the Yunakivska and Myropolska communities of the Sumy Region. Our troops have already wedged into the enemy’s territory in the direction of Basovka and the settlement of Zhuravka. Until the demining of the territory is completed, the authorities of the Kursk Region have introduced temporary restrictions on entry into 122 settlements in six districts bordering Ukraine.

▪️ In the north of the Kupiansk direction, there are reports of counter-actions by the AFU near Fiholeve on the right bank of the Oskil River.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) direction, there are battles in the area of the settlements of Udachne, Kotlyne, Pishchane, Shevchenko and Tarasivka. The enemy claims that the units of the Russian Armed Forces freed from the liberated Konstantynopil have been redeployed to Pokrovsk to increase the pressure.

▪️ The Eastern grouping of troops continues its advance in the Bohatyrske direction west of the settlements. Battles continue in the area of the settlements of Dnipro Energy and Burlats’ke.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, our comrades report (https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25352) on the success of the Russian Armed Forces in the area of Shcherbaky and Mali Shcherbaky.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/03/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-march_15.html