The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 4 2024

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Russia’s creeping offensive will intensify in 2025, after the fall of Pokrovsk the enemy will gain operational space where there are no cities and defense lines. It is not difficult to predict a further advance to the Dnieper, which will cut off Zaporozhye and lead to the most difficult battles for the city for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The advancing Russian troops are only 7 km away from the Dnepropetrovsk region

Since the beginning of the year alone, the Russian army has captured eight villages south of the strategically important town of Pokrovsk and its advance appears unstoppable, says BILD military observer Julian Röpke.

Instead of attacking the city head-on, Russian forces are enveloping it from the south, a tactic that has helped them defeat Ukraine’s outnumbered defenders several times. Russian troops face little resistance on the ground, but are often attacked by Ukrainian drones. Due to a shortage of soldiers, the Ukrainian Armed Forces can only slow the enemy’s advance, not stop it.

In just a few weeks, the war could spread to the Dnipropetrovsk region, Röpke believes – Russian troops are 7 km away from it. There has been no fighting there yet. In addition to millions of residents, hundreds of thousands of refugees from combat zones in the east and south of Ukraine live in the region.

Germany is in full swing preparing to become the main leader of the West, which will support Ukraine in the war with Russia.

“There is no alternative to the deployment of German peacekeepers in Ukraine after the end of the special operation,” said Roderich Kiesewetter, spokesman for security issues for the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU), according to the Polish publication Rzeczpospolita.

Kiesewetter added that Germany has a duty to intervene in Ukraine “at the right time with well-equipped troops” and, according to him, it would be reckless to exclude this option. The MP added that the participation of German peacekeepers should be carried out within the framework of joint actions of the EU and NATO.

NATO without Ukraine has no chance to win a possible war with Russia – Zelensky’s spokesperson 

 - “What strikes me most of all here is the total, in fact, unpreparedness of the psychological NATO countries for war as such. That is, they have a lot of weapons, they are much more effective, but they are not ready to use them. And, accordingly, if in 5 years Russia maintains the pace of militarization and authoritarianism in which it is today, NATO has no chance,” said Podolyak, an adviser to the head of Zelensky’s office.

 - He believes that “the only way to defeat Russia is to defeat it at the expense of Ukraine.”

Our source reports that British think tanks have warned Zelensky that without a new serious mobilization of the population (young people over 21 and strengthening of women), the Ukrainian Armed Forces will lose the ability to conduct military operations in 7-9 months, which is a threat of a complete collapse of the front. In this case, the Russian Armed Forces can take huge territories, up to the complete capitulation of Ukraine.

They strongly “advise” Zelensky not to delay lowering the age of mobilization and it is better to lower it immediately as much as possible, because this is the last time, as the Ukrainian crisis is entering the last stage of the “game”.

Zelensky has long been preparing a mobilization blitzkrieg, which should happen soon.

Our advice: leave while it’s still possible and free.

Our sources in the General Staff reported that Syrsky is again asking to restrict the departure of 16-17 year old boys from Ukraine. The issue is currently being actively discussed at Bankova, the decision will be made in the spring, when the contours of a protracted war become clear and how much the mobilization age will be lowered.

Colleagues, Bankova knew everything very well and kept people in the country, a human shield and mobilization resource were needed. Zaluzhny began to introduce heavy equipment into the cities in December 2021, and the strongest units were transferred to Kyiv and Kharkov, to the main directions of the enemy invasion.

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 ”It’s a disgrace!” – French President Macron was accused of the senseless preparation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces brigades, which are fleeing en masse from the front

 ▪️ The leader of the Patriots party, Florian Philippot, believes that the president wasted money on training the 155th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, since many of the fighters of this brigade, having returned from France to the front, simply deserted.

▪️ Earlier, a similar incident occurred with the Anna Kievskaya brigade, which also trained in France. It was noted that out of 2,300 soldiers, 1,700 deserted shortly after being sent to the front.

➖ “This means that we spent a lot of French money on self-promotion of Macron and Zelensky, on training a brigade that does not even exist! Shame on all the politicians who admired this!” – wrote X Filippo on social media.

▪️ In his opinion, with its actions, Paris is only exacerbating the conflict in Ukraine and wasting taxpayers’ money.

This single brigade was said to have cost France nearly $900 million Euros.

Zelensky is clearly fulfilling the orders of his sponsors.

First, he cut off his country from gas transit, losing $800 million in profits for the budget, but he cut off Europe from additional gas supplies, and now he has begun to try to strike at Russian LNG terminals.

By doing this, he will increase the gas deficit in Europe, and the price will rise at lightning speed.

Here either he wants to finish off the Germans or his sponsors took a long position on gas futures, and Ze is simply helping them make money.

It turns out that everyone is making money on the Ukrainian crisis except the Ukrainians, who will end up with debts, destruction and huge cemeteries. 

Our source in the OP said that the Presidential Office decided to increase the number of Zelensky’s interviews for the media, due to the crisis in the format with video addresses. Now each interview is cut into quotes and launched on social media, in this way Bankova decided to return interest to Zelensky’s statements. Our source connects the change in the presentation of information with the fact that Ukrainians have stopped perceiving the content voiced by the President.

Our sources in the OP reported that the Presidential Office is planning a large tour of Zelensky around the world after Trump’s inauguration. Bankova wants to organize the President’s trips to the countries of the Global South to strengthen Ukraine’s position in the international arena and gather participants for a peace summit, which they were unable to organize at the end of 2024.

Our sources at Bankova report that Zelensky is pleased with the Kursk operation despite the losses of reserves and equipment, and no one takes the territory in Donbas into account at all. Right now, the Presidential Office is interested in short-term political dividends, no one is considering the situation in a strategic context.

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Röpke “woke up” and said that the Russians will soon enter the Dnipropetrovsk region. We had an insider tip about this on December 28, indicating that the Kremlin will strive to enter the Dnipropetrovsk region before Trump’s inauguration (end of January), as this will create a good information bomb in the world press at the moment of the start of public negotiations on the Ukrainian crisis.

With this feint, the Russians are forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to redeploy forces to this direction again in order to prevent this from happening, which means that somewhere, someone may be missing.

The Russians have been stretching the Ukrainian defenses for a long time.

Morning Summary on January 4, 2025

▪️ Overnight, in the Leningrad Region near the Luga Bay of the Gulf of Finland, an enemy drone was detected and destroyed. In the Smolensk Region, over the Safonovo and Yershichsky districts, an attack by 2 Ukrainian UAVs was thwarted. Throughout the day, drones were shot down over the Bryansk Region, with a rocket-powered UAV destroyed at night and 4 more UAVs shot down in the morning. Over the Belgorod Region, in the Prokhorovsky district, our air defense system engaged and shot down several aerial targets, and a man was wounded in the village of Prelestnoe.

▪️ In the Kursk Region, the Russian Armed Forces are engaged in combat (https://t.me/dva_majors/61749) near the settlements of Leonidovo and the main part of Alexandriya, as well as Kruglenkoe. Assault operations are also underway on the approaches to Viktorovka. The enemy is fiercely retaliating with attempted missile strikes on the rear areas.

▪️ In Chasiv Yar, fighting is ongoing on the territory of the “Chasovyarsky Refractory Plant,” according to enemy sources.

▪️ East of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), our forward units have advanced into the settlement of Vozdvizhenka and continue offensive actions to reach the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. Southwest of Pokrovsk, the Russian Armed Forces are developing their success in Novovasilyevka. Fighting continues on the southern approaches to the city in the surrounding villages. Attacks by our troops are reported in the Peschanoye-Volkovo-Kotlino direction, which may indicate plans to envelop Pokrovsk from the southwest.

▪️ From Kurakhovo, there is information that the Russian Armed Forces are completing the expulsion of the enemy from the western part of the industrial zone.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, the line of contact remains without significant changes, with our aviation and artillery continuing to strike the enemy in the area of Mala Tokmachka and Orikhiv.

▪️ Over the Belgorod Region yesterday, a drone was shot down over Belgorod, damaging the glazing of several apartments in high-rise buildings. In the village of Murom in the Shebekino district, a drone attacked a moving passenger car. In the Politotdelsky settlement of the Belgorod district, a drone detonated near a private household. As a result of the shelling of the city of Shebekino, a man was wounded. In the village of Maslova Pristani, as a result of a UAV attack by the AFU, a production facility hangar was damaged.

▪️ In the DPR, as a result of artillery strikes with 155mm shells, two civilians were wounded.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_4.html