The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 22 2025

Ukraine Russia War Trump’s Limited Options for Peace

There’s No Happy Ending for Ukraine

‘Not Looking to Hurt Russia But’ Trump Threatens Sanctions, Zelensky Reveals Putin’s ‘Ultimatum’

Battlefield Ukraine The Russian Victory

RF continues to advance in Velyka Novosilka [22 January 2025]

[ Ukraine War Conclusions ] Encirclement at Velyka Novosilka; Trump cuts foreign aid to Ukraine

Velyka Novosilka Disaster | Several Additional Encirclements In The Works

Ukrainian Forces In Velyka Novosilka Encircled In Huge Numbers

Ukraine War Update: Russia Is SO CLOSE To Capturing All Of Toretsk

Russians Are Trying To Bypass Pokrovsk From East And West l Baranivka Has Fallen

Russian Marines Engaged in BATTLE with Elite French and Ukrainian Special Forces Units in KURILOVKA

Our source reports that Zelensky is afraid to admit publicly that he told Trump that he was ready for a peace deal even with “concessions” of territories.

The reason is banal.

The military, when they find out, may refuse to fight. After all, no one wants to die at the “finish line” if everything has already been almost decided. Zelensky may also be asked why he sent thousands of soldiers to attack (to their deaths) if he had already agreed to peace and territorial concessions?

Let’s watch how this “story” develops.

Everyone has noticed that the rhetoric of the President’s Office has changed. No one is shouting loudly about reaching the 1991 borders and coffee in Yalta any more.

Bankova has always used this narrative as a slogan to distract the masses from problems and to continue the war.

Since the spring of 2023 (there were no high-profile failures yet, but only the success of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Kharkiv/Kherson operation), Zelensky and Yermak knew that there would be no 1991 borders. We got inside information about this in 2023. Having written that the Ukrainians would be told about this only when the vector of the “bullshit” changed.

Let’s add that Zelensky knew that Biden had no task of saturating Kyiv with a huge amount of weapons for victory (the West could have immediately given all the weapons it had and that would have been enough. BUT!) – this would have 100% turned into a nuclear war. Zelensky was immediately told that he would be given exactly enough weapons to prolong the war and provoke Maidan/protests/swings in Russia.

Zelensky gave his consent and entered into this risky large-scale adventure, putting the lives of millions of Ukrainians and the future of Ukraine at stake.

So when Zelensky says that he was given too few weapons, he is lying. He was given exactly as much as agreed. It’s just that the plan didn’t work and now they need to save their own skins.

Zelensky and Yermak knew everything a long time ago, but cynically lied to the Ukrainian people, using the fates of people for their own personal purposes!

The Kremlin is considering the format of complex negotiations between Putin and Trump, during which pressure from the United States is possible and the format of introducing new sanctions against Russia is possible. All these factors are carefully calculated before the personal meeting of the two presidents. According to our sources, Russia is ready to compromise that does not affect the fundamental issues that forced us to start the NWO. One of the key issues for Russia remains the non-aligned status of Ukraine, the absence of NATO troops on its territory, as well as the status of new Russian territories, on which Putin will take a tough negotiating position. The issue of sanctions, frozen assets of the Central Bank and the new security architecture in the EU are secondary for us.

The Foreign Ministry has already developed the outlines of the necessary agreements, but the entire negotiating process is being sought to be supervised by the presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, despite the position of Sergey Lavrov. For Russia, these negotiations could become a new “Yalta”, and therefore their preparation is one of the central issues on Staraya Square.

“We supported Ukraine, but this conflict must end,” – US Secretary of State

▪️Secretary of State Marco Rubio on ABC’s Good Morning America responded to a question about Trump’s campaign promise to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on day one:

➖”Look, this is a difficult, tragic conflict. It has done enormous damage to Ukraine, and to Russia, but also to stability in Europe. So the only way to solve these problems is to return to pragmatism, but we also have to return to seriousness, and that is the hard work of diplomacy. The United States has a role to play here. We have supported Ukraine, but this conflict has to end,” the Secretary of State said.

Ukraine’s position has worsened, it is in the role of a supplicant and has no right to dictate its terms to the Central European countries that are members of the European Union, said Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban after talks in Bratislava with his Slovak counterpart Robert Fico.

 ”The way Kievans are trying to build relations with Central European countries is unacceptable. We are ready to respect them, but we demand respect for ourselves. And if we raise a serious issue, they should discuss it with us” 

- Orban 

He recalled that Hungary and Slovakia are EU members, while Ukraine is only a candidate for accession.

“There should be no confusion in positions. They cannot act as if Bratislava and Budapest should dance to their tune. This is impossible,” 

- Orban emphasized. 

“They have lost a fifth of their country, and their industry is in ruins. They cannot ensure their existence, but they act as if they are able to dictate their terms to us. In reality, they are in the position of a supplicant, but one must also know how to ask” 

Ukraine’s belligerence might work with Germany and Brussels, but it does not work with other countries that have their own strong national identities.

Rumors are emerging that after all those responsible for supplying Ukraine from the Pentagon were allegedly dismissed, disruptions began with the transshipment of military cargo in the Baltic States. 

The logistical disruptions allegedly affected weapons already agreed upon and shipped via Romania and Poland, the main hubs for the transfer of weapons to Ukraine. 

If this information is confirmed soon, Trump’s plan to renegotiate military aid to Ukraine has begun to work. 

If Flightradar data is to be believed, US aviation has drastically reduced flights to Poland’s Rzeszów. 

After new U.S. President Donald Trump took office, only four aircraft arrived in Poland on January 20: two from the U.S. air bases Ramstein and Wiesbaden in Germany, and two more by Kalitta Airlines from the U.S. bases Wright-Patterson and Dover. 

But other interesting aircraft have started to appear in the airspace of neighboring countries. Right now, a U.S. Army VIP plane (usually carrying military commanders) Cessna UC-35A Citation Ultra with the call sign DUKE22 flew from Budapest Airport in Hungary to Izmir, Turkey. 

No other government/military aircraft in the skies over Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania yet. 

Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, retired US General Keith Kellogg, told Fox News on January 8, “I would like to set a goal on a personal level, professional level, I would say let’s set it at 100 days.”

As optimistic as that sounds for a war that will reach its third anniversary next month, 100 days represents a step back from an even more optimistic timetable. In May 2023, Trump said the conflict would be “absolutely over” within “24 hours” of him officially becoming president.

Asked how he will end the Ukraine war at a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida in the US on January 7, Trump pulled away from his statement on the campaign trail that he would do it in 24 hours, calling the negotiation “a tough one”.

Trump’s haste has unnerved Ukraine.

Asked “Do you want Ukraine to win this war?” during his one campaign debate with US Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump answered, “I want the war to stop. I want to save lives.”

Russia, on the other hand, has welcomed Trump’s expeditiousness.

Kiev demands a full withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory and immediate NATO membership. Moscow says there is no question of returning any land it occupies, and wants Ukraine written out of NATO.

Trump and his team have offered no details of what a deal might look like, but he suggested he was willing to accommodate Russia’s view that Ukraine’s right to self-determination could be put aside in favour of bigger interests.

In Mar-a-Lago, he said: “Russia has someone right on their doorstep and I can understand their feeling about that.”

Before the war started, “the deal [with Russia] could have been made by just an average dealmaker”, said Trump, suggesting he would have readily agreed to keep Ukraine out of NATO, and perhaps made other concessions outgoing US President Joe Biden found unpalatable.

Kellogg has said Trump is “not trying to give something to Putin or to the Russians … He’s actually trying to save Ukraine and save their sovereignty.”

As the war remains largely static on the ground, experts have told Al Jazeera that control of airspace and sustainable war finances are more likely to determine who wins.

Ukraine has recently sounded confident about its ability to continue to withstand Russian attacks while inflicting staggering losses that it believes will wear the Russian army out, lead to a loss of political support for the war in Russia, or outstrip Putin’s ability to help Russia’s economy recover.

Ukraine has manpower shortages and is losing aid, this isn’t rocket science Al Jazeera. Ukraine is doomed.

Zelensky – on the fact that he does not recognize the cession of territories: 

   But he [Putin] cannot be stopped just like that. You have to talk from a position of strength. Because if we start talking to him on an equal footing, I think it is a loss for Ukraine. 

Legally, we do not recognize, no matter who wants to do what. Let all the allies of the world unite, we still do not recognize the occupied territories. We do not legally recognize them. 

And that is why they will always be territories occupied by Russia. And it can’t be otherwise. Otherwise, all the people who lost children, relatives, husbands – it was in vain.

Trump says he is not against imposing additional sanctions against Russia

You have called for a ceasefire in Ukraine. If Putin does not sit down at the negotiating table with you, will you impose additional sanctions against Russia?

-Sounds plausible.

And you think that the war should be frozen…

-The war should never have started.

Trump ready for meeting, calls Putin ‘smart’ for ‘not respecting Biden’

Highlights from the White House briefing:

▪️The Russian president declared his readiness to meet with Putin “at any time he wants”;

▪️“Zelensky wants peace, which he told me very seriously, but it takes two to tango”;

▪️Evaded answering about arms supplies to Ukraine. “The US is studying this issue”;

▪️In response to a journalist’s question about whether new sanctions against Russia would follow if Vladimir Putin refused to negotiate, Trump said: “It sounds likely.

Head of Eurodiplomacy Kaja Kallas – said Ukraine will defeat Russia: 

For too long we have offered Russia alternatives, hoping it would choose cooperation and economic prosperity for its people over rogue imperialist ambitions. Instead, the Russian defense industry is producing tanks, planning bombs and artillery shells in huge quantities.

 They can produce more weapons and ammunition in 3 months than we can in 12. 

This is a heavily militarized country that poses an existential threat to us all. The Ukrainians are fighting for both their and our freedom. They are buying us time.

From day one, EU member states have been on their side. We have already given a total of €134 billion to Ukraine, including €50 billion for weapons. There is no doubt that we can do more to help Ukraine. With our help they can win the war.

The only language Putin speaks is the language of force. The EU has the power. Together, the economies of the EU member states are 17 times larger than Russia’s.

Trump issues ultimatum: I don’t want to hurt Russia and I’ve always had a very good relationship with President Putin; it’s time to make a deal

 ➖ ” I don’t want to harm Russia. I love the Russian people, and I have always had a very good relationship with President Putin – despite the fact that the radical left says: “Russia, Russia, Russia.”

❗️We must never forget that Russia helped us win World War II, losing almost 60,000,000 lives in the process. With that in mind, I am going to do Russia, whose economy is collapsing, and President Putin a very big favor.

▪️Come to an agreement now and stop this ridiculous war! IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE. If we don’t make a “deal” soon, I will have no choice but to impose high taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on everything Russia sells to the US and other participating countries. Let’s end this war that would never have started if I were president! We can do it the easy way or the hard way – and the easy way is always better.

▪️It’s time to “make a deal”. NOT ANY MORE LIFE MUST BE LOST!!!”

One thing for sure is this Trump presidency is nothing like the first one so far, though that could be good or bad.

What’s wrong with Trump’s address?

If you want to end a conflict, you have to address the causes. Russia started the SMO to stop NATO advances and eliminate the threat from Ukraine. And pretending you don’t know that is cheating. Basically, Trump’s “let’s just not go to war” is not far off from Johnson’s “let’s just go to war”.

If Trump doesn’t want to consider Russia’s interests, he won’t be able to finish anything.

“Make a deal or I’ll take you down” is not the language to speak to Russia.

After a conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, French President Emmanuel Macron called on European states to increase defense spending, including military aid to the so-called Ukraine.   (https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2025/01/21/wake-up-about-defense-macron-tells-europe-as-trump-takes-office/)

Immediately after Trump’s inauguration, Macron addressed French servicemembers, saying that potential plans by the new U.S. president regarding funding for the AFU pose a threat to Europe’s strategic security.

📌 It seems that such statements from Macron will become commonplace: as we wrote (https://t.me/rybar/67075) earlier, the current situation is a convenient opportunity for self-promotion. In an attempt to establish himself as a leader supporting all Western values, Macron will likely be featured on the front pages of European newspapers.

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And this is an excellent illustration of the activities of European politicians. They are ready to talk about anything (just a few years ago, Macron spoke out against Trump’s calls for EU countries to increase defense spending), but in the end, it is the taxpayers whose pockets will pay for the feast.

Our sources in the OP commented on Zelensky’s statement about 200 thousand peacekeepers from the EU, which the President of Ukraine made yesterday in Davos. In negotiations with the example of Britain, we were unable to get a promise of 100 thousand peacekeepers from European countries, which is why the President’s Office decided to use public diplomacy, overstating Ukraine’s request for peacekeepers by 2 times in order to receive its request of 100 thousand and equipment.

Lukashenko criticized Trump for his eupatatism: 

  There should be continuity, not “I came, such a hero, and I’ll break and crush everything. If you go out in public somewhere, they’ll shoot you. You see, there’s a lot of fools out there.

And Donald’s right. God saved him. If there is one, he saved him. For what? So he can do crazy stuff, cancel everything and work miracles in the world? He likes to be flashy, he likes to make waves, to show off. Enough already! 80 years old, how long can you do it?

Trump said that Russia lost almost a million soldiers killed during the Second World War, and Ukraine lost 700 thousand.

 ”We have the numbers: almost a million Russian soldiers have been killed. But 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. The Russians have more, but they have more soldiers to lose. But that’s no way to run a country” 

- Trump said.

He believes that Putin “cannot be delighted” with the development of the war, since the seizure of territories is achieved at the cost of huge losses.

 ”Most people thought this war would be over in a week, and it’s been going on for three years. He can’t be happy about it, it doesn’t make him look good” 

Where does the US get its data from? 

- Ukraine

Who is the biggest source of disinformation in this war? 

- Ukraine

Zelensky got confused in his lies and said that 608,000 Russian soldiers are currently fighting in Ukraine, and 800,000 in the Ukrainian Armed Forces

▪️On December 9, Zelensky reported that 800,000 Russian fighters are fighting in Ukraine. That is, almost 200 thousand more than Zelensky said now.

▪️At the same time, the estimates of most experts range from 600 to 700 thousand people. Russian authorities also cited a figure of more than 700,000 people.

Everything that comes out of Ukraine is pure propaganda and the media in the West often parrots these positions.

Zelensky believes that the NATO charter is just a piece of paper and everything depends only on Trump

‘Yes, four countries do not support us. These are the US, Germany, Slovakia and Hungary. But everything depends on the US. The countries simply want to show that they are leaders, but the issue of Ukraine’s admission to NATO depends on the US and the position of the president. If Trump is ready to see Ukraine in NATO, we will be in NATO. And everyone will be ‘For’ if Trump is ready.’

Zelensky can’t read the tea leaves. Trump and the guys around him have NO interest in Europe and are focused on Asia. They do no want US resources being tied up with another country they have to subsidize. Nor can Trump make NATO bring in Ukraine. Zelensky is getting hung up on something that will never happen.

Why did Zelensky, after two years of deafening silence, suddenly decide to deny what his own handmaiden Arahamiya made public, and then confirmed by many other participants?

Why make a clown show, saying that there were no negotiations with Russia, we just came to different places to sit for a month, but it was not a negotiation?

The puzzle is quite simple. Russian demands for the start of peace talks, which are about to begin, are based on the very Istanbul agreements that Kyiv drafted and even initialed, that is, confirmed. And now, in order to disrupt the negotiations, it is necessary to disavow what was there before.

Here is Zelensky, who is alive only while the war is going on, and is performing the traditional “I am not me, the cow is not mine”. 

There is no sense in this, because no one will be interested in Zelensky’s opinion at the upcoming negotiations. But he can’t believe it in any way.

Kiev vibes: guys with the Russian flag walk near yellow and blue flags on Independence Square

Recently, local police caught teenagers singing “I am Russian” in the streets. Now they have to face another uncomfortable situation.

Everything will be Russia, guys.

According to a head of one of the district military recruitment centers in Kharkiv, there are now almost no motivated people left in the city to serve in the AFU, and the mobilization plan fulfillment rate is very low.

It is worth noting that the Kyiv regime has taken harsh measures in Kharkiv to recruit manpower – from giving the military recruitment centers a free hand to use violence (https://t.me/voenacher/73174), to plans for the police to hunt down conscripts, with the police themselves facing mobilization for non-compliance. 

However, as can be judged, these initiatives, along with checkpoints (https://t.me/voenacher/73586) and raids, do not have the desired effect. And much fewer recruits than planned are arriving at the known “Safari” shooting range and other local training grounds.

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📌 And if we remember that Kharkiv is the second largest city in the territory controlled by the so-called Ukraine, the ongoing events look symbolic, especially from the point of view of the loyalty of its residents.

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And while the Kyiv regime still has people and equipment (arriving at the same level (https://t.me/bmpd_cast/21964) as before), many problems are beginning to look more symptomatic for the ability of the so-called Ukraine to continue the war in the future.

Bolshaya (Velikaya) Novoselka

Practically abandoned by the AFU. Sporadic groups are still in buildings and cellars. Scattered and without supplies. Completely cut off from exits.

Meanwhile, near Velykaya Novosyolka, the burning out of the remnants of the AFU garrison continues. Part of the Ukrainian military is trying to flee through the fields, while the other part is sealed in positions that can neither be abandoned nor steadily defended. 

The AFU defense line in this area is beginning to resemble what it was in Bakhmut (Artyomovsk) before its liberation – there is no even “front” and the flanks are torn and irregular, making it difficult for the Ukrainian military to take any active actions. 

Catastrophe in Velykaya Novoselka: the Ukrainian armed forces are pinned down by the Russian army and can only get out on foot.

- This is stated by Ukrainian propagandist, Censor chief Y. Butusov.

- The AFU are holding in a corridor from 2,200 to 3,700 meters wide. It is completely shot through by Russian waxes. Butusov calls the situation “catastrophic” on this and other parts of the front.

- “It is impossible to deploy communications, organize supplies and rapid evacuation. How is it possible to hold it further? There is no replenishment of people. But there is an order to hold on,” Butusov states.

- He calls for a command to withdraw the AFU forces from Velyka Novoselka.

The General Staff continues its favorite tactics of losses, holding the settlement in a semi-encirclement, losing hundreds of soldiers during rotation and supply.

Now you can only get to Velikaya Novosyolka on foot due to the presence of the Russian army on the flanks, says the editor-in-chief of “Censor.net” Yuri Butusov.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are holding on in a corridor from 2,200 to 3,700 meters wide. It is completely under fire from the Russians. Butusov calls the situation “catastrophic”.

“It is impossible to establish communications, organize support and rapid evacuation. How can this be held any longer? There are no reinforcements. But there is an order to hold on,” Butusov says.

The “cauldron” in Velykaya (Bolshaya) Novosyolka is boiling: the Russian army has blocked and is destroying the AFU. 

 - A strategically important town in the South Donetsk direction is still surrounded from three sides, and the zone of control of the AFU is narrowing under the onslaught of Russian troops.

 - Motorized riflemen, marines and tankers of the “Vostok” group from three directions are squeezing pincers around the AFU units trapped by rivers, moving deep into the town. 

 - The enemy is putting up fierce resistance, relying on powerful defensive positions.

 - “The situation is becoming more and more critical,” the enemy complains.

 - “Russian troops have advanced along a number of streets in the northern and eastern parts of the settlement. On the southern outskirts, Russian maneuvering groups have advanced along a number of forest belts. The situation remains difficult,” Ukrainian military analysts wrote today.

In Chasov Yar the AFU risk being caught in pincers. Evening of January 22 

Russian units began moving towards the city from the direction of the village of Stupochki, which is the southeastern side of Chasov Yar. If everything turns out well, the AFU fighters will have to fight on two “flanks”. This, of course, will weaken the entire defense of the Kiev regime as a whole in this direction. Fighting continues in the northern districts, a large part of the industrial zone on Privokzalnaya Street has come under the control of the AFU. 

FPV-drones are actively working on the positions of the Ukrainian militants, and where there is a need for a stronger “frying”, the TOC “Soncepyok” comes to help.

Russian Army liberates Zapadnoye near Kupyansk

Units of the Zapad force group have liberated Zapadnoye in Kharkov Region, the Defense Ministry said.

Kursk region

Some locations around the village of Makhnovka are again in the grey zone.

The Russian Armed Forces are conducting assault operations in the area of ​​the villages of Viktorovka and Nikolskoye.

The Russian Armed Forces are also conducting operational and tactical activities in the Malaya Loknya area.

In the settlement of Pogrebki, assault forces of the Russian Armed Forces occupied part of the settlement in the area of ​​farms and drove the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the stronghold along the railway.

The village of Nikolayevo-Daryino has been liberated. The situation around has been stabilized.

Morning Summary for January 22, 2025

▪️ Last night, 7 enemy drones were shot down over Crimea. By midnight, 9 enemy UAVs were shot down in Rostov Region. Overnight, the governor of Voronezh Region reported one enemy drone shot down.

▪️ In Kursk Region, the settlement of Nikolayevo-Daryino (https://t.me/dva_majors/62876) was liberated, with clearing and consolidation ongoing. The “North” grouping reports that our marines continue to destroy the enemy in Kurilovka and the surrounding area. The enemy’s special operations forces “East” will take up positions as regular infantry units on the next defensive line west of Kurilovka. Additionally, the AFU continue to build up their forces in the Sudzha border area. Two newly formed battalions of the 210th Separate Rifle Regiment “Berlingo” (considered an “elite” unit) are currently awaiting deployment from Kyiv.

▪️ North of Kupiansk, on the right bank of the Oskol River, the Russian Armed Forces continue to advance into the western part of the settlement of Dvorichna, in the central part north and south of the Nizhnya Dvorichna River.

▪️ In Chasiv Yar, south of the Refractory Plant and in the “Novoseverny” district, fighting continues in the built-up area.

▪️ In the Pokrovske direction, the Russian Armed Forces advanced along the forest belts southwest of the settlement of Slavyanka. South of there, fighting is ongoing in the area of Petropavlivka and Shevchenko towards Andriyivka.

▪️ In Velyka (Velyka) Novoselka, the enemy units tasked with ensuring the withdrawal of the main AFU forces fled to avoid encirclement. The liberation of the settlement continues, with no need for haste. The remaining enemy garrison is receiving contradictory orders, has no resupply or evacuation options, but continues to resist.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia Front, active counter-battery operations were conducted by both sides across the entire front line. A large number of strike and reconnaissance UAVs were observed in the sky.

▪️ In Belgorod Region, on the section of the Bessonivka – Orlovka highway, a UAV struck a moving passenger car, injuring a civilian. In the village of Yasnyye Zori, a man was injured as a result of a drone attack. Parents with an 11-year-old child sought medical attention after the child suffered barotrauma during air defense measures against an attack over the Belgorod District. In the village of Novostroyevka-Pervaya, an FPV drone struck a moving passenger car, injuring a man. In Shebekino, an EW system suppressed a drone, and its subsequent fall and detonation damaged the roof of an apartment building and the glazing of one of the apartments. In the village of Voznesenivka in the Shebekino district, windows were broken as a result of a drone attack. In the Belgorod district, in the village of Yasnyye Zori, a drone attacked an apartment building. The Balki hamlet in the Shebekino district was shelled, damaging power lines. The village of Borisovka in the Volokonovsky district was attacked by two FPV drones.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_22.html