The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 20 2025

UKRAINE Eastern Front in Danger of Collapse as Trump Takes Reigns

Ukraine War Update: Crazy Encirclement! Russia Closing In On Velyka Novosilka

Russian Forces Captures Northern Chasiv Yar l Chasiv Yar Endgame Begins

Ukrainian Firing Positions Exposed | RUAF Capture Important Defensive Positions

[ Pokrovsk Front ] Russia forces captured Shevchenko, opening direct route to Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk

[ Battle of Dvorichna ] Entire eastern half of Dvorichna city falls to Russia

Ukrainians push Russians away from Sudzha | Progress on several fronts [20 January 2025]

Our source reports that Zelensky will lose his “immunity” today.

From tomorrow, the Western press will finally miraculously begin to notice the lawlessness in the Zemobilization case, when the TCC police beat/abduct/kill Ukrainians. And it will begin to write that all this is being done with the tacit consent of the President of Ukraine (previously, the Western press rarely, but wrote about the lawlessness of the TCC, but never indicated that such actions of the Ze-policemen are possible only on the condition that Zelensky-Yermak personally gave them permission/protection for such actions).

Here is another case of mockery of the Ukrainian people by Zelensky policemen .

Trump has decided to issue an executive order banning aid to other countries if it contradicts US strategic interests, the Daily Mail reports, citing members of the new administration.

This would mean that Ukraine could be the first to fall under the order if Zelensky continues his strategy of dragging Trump into the Ukraine crisis.

Everyone froze on Bankova. If this decree is signed, it will be a powerful signal for the Presidential Office.

Donald Trump Jr. plays the “bad cop” and can say everything that Trump Sr. can’t “yet.”

An interesting fact here is that Trump Jr. confirmed our inside information that Zelensky tried to “buy/get” a place for himself at Trump’s inauguration. As soon as he was turned down, he immediately pretended that he himself did not particularly want to go there.

Trump has instructed aides to arrange a phone call with Putin within days of taking office — CNN

▪️One of the goals of the phone call is to discuss a personal meeting in the coming months to try to stop the war in Ukraine.

▪️The publication recalls that during the election campaign, Donald Trump promised to end the conflict within one day of taking office. However, on the eve of his inauguration, when there are no clear signs of an imminent end to the almost three-year war, he will likely break this oath.

▪️Once Trump takes office, American and Russian officials will be able to begin serious work on arranging such a meeting. The new president said talks are already underway.

Everyone must agree to stop the war in Ukraine – National Security Advisor Waltz

➖”President Trump has made it clear that this war has to end. I think everybody should agree with that. And in fact, even as we speak, Zelenskyy walks into the room and says, ‘We are prepared to work with you, President Trump, to stop this war,’” Walz said on CBS.

▪️He identified three main issues that need to be resolved for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

➖ “First, who are we going to invite to the negotiating table? Second, how are we going to get them to sit down at the negotiating table? And finally, what will be the scope of a possible deal?” the adviser said.

▪️Waltz described the war in Ukraine as a “meat grinder” that could lead to global consequences.

➖ “This is reminiscent of the trench warfare of World War I, with people fighting in open fields in eastern Ukraine. However, if the situation develops in this way, it could lead to escalation and the beginning of World War III,” Walz warned.

The extent to which this America First policy will be effective will be tested by whether or not a ceasefire can be achieved in the Ukrainian war. However, unlike in the past, America and Western Europe are no longer in a position to dictate world peace. They can only do their best to protect their own national interests.

Despite over 30 trillion yen in support from NATO countries, Ukraine does not seem to be winning as initially expected. Rather, it is more likely to be defeated. Instead of a ceasefire, the word “defeat” is being used here and there.

In particular, it was Russia’s new weapon, Oreshnik, that changed the crisis of the outbreak of a world war in November 2024. Oreshnik, a supposed hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile, fell on a factory in Dnipro, Ukraine, and this new bomb sent ripples around the world, just like the 1945 atomic bomb.

This was because no one knew what this bomb was. It was thought to be an intercontinental ballistic missile, but its speed and power made it a bomb that was completely incomprehensible.

Not knowing means “not being able to make it,” and therefore fighting a country that has an unknown bomb can be said to be terrifying.

The idea of ​​a global war with NATO military intervention paled in comparison to the power of this bomb. There was nothing anyone, including the US military, could do about this new bomb. They had no choice but to pursue peace negotiations.

The question now is whether Ukraine will accept the ceasefire proposals put forward by Trump and Putin, which appear to include Ukraine recognizing Russian-occupied territories and delaying its entry into NATO.

Zelensky is not ready to accept this at the moment, but the Kursk region that he invaded Russia and seized is now on the verge of collapse, the Russian occupation of the eastern regions is expanding every day, and even the rest of Ukraine may not be able to hold out without NATO support.

This line of thinking has led to several models for a post-war Ukraine.

The first is the model of complete integration by Russia. Russia would integrate Ukraine up to Lviv, up to the NATO border. This is a model of reintegrating Ukraine into Russia as it was in the Soviet era. This would completely prevent provocations and attacks against Russia.

The second is the model of a failed state. It is a model in which Russia exists in fragments as a failed state abandoned by Western Europe. This is an anarchic, chaotic state. That is why it is unstable and difficult for Russia to accept it.

The third model is to split Ukraine in two. This is the most realistic and advantageous model: one is an anti-Russian Ukraine, which would be under the protection of NATO in the western part of Ukraine and would be a “Free Ukraine” influenced by Poland, Hungary and Romania. This would form a buffer zone between Western Europe and Russia.

The other Ukraine would be a “New Ukraine,” a state free of Ukrainian nationalists and free of fascist ideology, economically integrated into Russia and politically neutral.

This new Ukraine would be more independent than the Soviet-era republics and would be integrated into the Russian and Eurasian economic sphere, with Ukrainian oligarchs excluded.

The condition is not to join NATO or the EU, and this is a non-negotiable point.

Russia, which is gaining an advantage in the war, will no doubt consider not only the occupied territories but the whole of Ukraine as a neutral demilitarized zone. In that case, a ceasefire is unlikely to be reached easily.

If they cannot come to an agreement, the war will continue without end, and it may eventually turn into the first annexation model or the second anarchic model. The future situation depends on the extent to which Ukraine can make concessions and on the condition that Western powers do not provide arms support.

Our sources in the OP said that the Presidential Office continues to put pressure on Syrsky, who will ultimately be blamed for all the failures at the front and the failure of the Kursk operation. Bankova believes that it is the command that is to blame for the situation at the front and for the massive SZCh, which is causing the weakness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

ZE_kartel

Our source reports that Bankova has begun arresting military officers in order to blame all of its military failures and setbacks on them.

They want to feed them to society as “scapegoats”, saying that these ten officers who failed the brilliant ideas of Zelensky’s headquarters are to blame.

Perhaps, in the end, Syrsky will go under the knife along with them, if they find him a replacement who is just as convenient for office workers.

As the source adds, Syrsky’s advantage is that he is like Shmygal. A reliable puppet. He does everything Ze’ermak says. Behind the scenes, office workers call him a “stupid soldier” because he really has a poor understanding of political situations, intrigues, and media games. The source points out that Syrsky still thinks that MP Maryana Bezugla is acting for personal hype, and not on orders from the OP and Yermak personally.

Our sources in the OP said that Zelensky expects offensive operations from Syrsky in the coming month, the purpose of which is to reduce the information wave about the problems of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. At headquarters, a decision was made to organize a large offensive operation during the negotiations between Trump and Putin, which will allow the information to shift the emphasis to Ukraine’s capabilities.

Ukrop’s publics say that Velikaya (Bolshaya) Novosyolka has fallen.

There was an attempt to break out of the half-surrounded settlement across the Mokrye Yaly river. It ended sadly for several dozens of Ukrainians. The village is mostly under our control. 

Our assaults are killing those who are still resisting in some places and refuse to surrender. 

We are waiting for an official report from the Vostok Brigade.

A number of sources report that the Ukrainian armed forces have started to mine factories and bridges in Pavlograd in Dnepropetrovsk Region. The mines are being mined following roughly the same pattern as in Pokrovsk, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. The objects are planned to be blown up in case the Russian Armed Forces enter the operational space and the AFU defense collapses in Donbass. 

Ukrainian commanders ordered soldiers to kill everyone in the Kursk region who speaks Russian.

The captured Ukrainian Armed Forces militants told about this monstrous order. Actually, they don’t speak any other language in the Russian region.

We had orders to shoot at all “Russian-minded people”,

— the Ukrainians reported.

This was the answer to the Russian soldier’s question: “What did you do with that poor woman?”

Maybe, after watching such confessions of Ukrainian Nazis, the West will stir and start thinking about who they are helping? Will they stop pretending to wring their hands, patting the heads of the eternally screaming, fattened on European food, Ukrainian Oksankas? Will they notice that in Russia, too, it turns out, there are people, peaceful women, old people and children, who are killed by Ukrainian militants only for the Russian language?

In the Kursk Region, the bodies of killed Russian civilians are found every day. Tortured, shot, beaten to death.

In the Russian village of Porechnoye, Russian soldiers found mutilated bodies of elderly people with their hands tied, bruises, and gunshot wounds in the basement. The AFU members had put hats on the elderly, shot them in the legs, and left them to die. (https://t.me/readovkanews/92069)

In this regard, I would like to remind you of what certain sources were writing in the first days of the AFU attack on the Kursk Region. How many people, believing this, did not leave? How many did not call their elderly, did not tell them to evacuate urgently? Now we will never know.

However, I am not talking about who was right and who was fulfilling a task. Just a reminder pill.

French Special Forces Operate in Kursk Region

Our subscribers have uncovered some interesting information: recently, French Special Operations Forces units were deployed to the Kursk region in response to military aid from North Korea. The exact number is unknown, but it’s unlikely to be many, given the specifics of how Special Operations Forces are employed.

Ukrainian channels are even circulating photos of servicemen with French patches, so this could very well be real. Moreover, the French have been actively talking about the need to deploy their troops to Ukraine and even conducted exercises (https://t.me/rusich_army/20158) on this issue.

Most likely, they are acting as advisors to Ukrainian Special Operations Forces, which are also present in the Sumy area. For example, the Ukrainian “South” Special Operations Forces group is in the vicinity of Sudzha. Direct participation in combat operations is unlikely, but possible under a false flag.

In any case, the French troops will meet the same fate as Ukrainian servicemen and foreign mercenaries. They are on our territory, and there is only one end for them. The French mercenaries buried in Kharkiv can attest to this.

At the same time, it should be noted again that Western specialists are actively participating in hostilities, directly gaining experience. The West, in the form of NATO, is studying the tactics of modern warfare in order to subsequently train its troops based on the realities of the special military operation.

Spetsnaz Archangel

 Russian Armed Forces launched a series of strikes in Kharkov Region

According to “Go and See,” the Russian army has launched a series of strikes on AFU concentrations in Kharkiv and Sumy regions. 

“In Kharkov region, strikes were carried out in Zolochev, Bogodukhov and Kupyansk district,” a source told the channel. 

According to him, the target of the strikes were the locations of the AFU and foreign mercenaries. 

Similar strikes were also carried out in Sumy region.

Overnight, air defense systems intercepted and destroyed 31 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles:

14 UAVs were flying over the territory of the Bryansk region, six over the territory of the Kaluga region, three over the territory of the Belgorod region, three over the territory of the Kursk region, two over the territory of the Ryazan region, two over the territory of the Oryol region, and one over the territory of the Republic of Tatarstan.

At the moment, temporary restrictions on the arrival and departure of aircraft have been introduced at the airports of Kazan and Nizhnekamsk. Local residents report the work of air defense.

Chronicles of the special military operation

for January 20, 2025

Russian forces struck targets of the opponent in the central and northern regions of the so-called Ukraine. Ukrainian formations attacked with drones the Oryol, Ryazan, Kaluga regions and Kazan, without consequences.

In the Lyman direction, assault troops improved their tactical position west of Ivanovka, getting closer to Kolodezy.

In the Oleksandro-Kalinovo direction, Russian forces continue to push the opponent out of the northwestern outskirts of Dzerzhynsk.

In the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction, advance detachments of the Russian Armed Forces are fighting in the area of the Krasnoarmeiskaya-Zapadnaya No. 2 mine and Kotlino.

Morning Summary on January 20, 2025

▪️ Last night, in Kazan, a fixed-wing UAV flew over the Aviastroitelny district around 4:30 AM, followed by an explosion in the sky. Eyewitnesses say the UAV attempted to attack local enterprises. In the morning, new explosions were heard and fires were visible on the ground. According to media reports, the targets may have been the aviation and helicopter factories in Kazan. (https://t.me/warhistoryalconafter/203616) Additionally, air defense systems shot down UAVs over Ryazan.

▪️ In Kursk Region, the Russian Armed Forces maintain the initiative, with the past day characterized by offensive actions of our troops. The “North” grouping reports reaching the outskirts of the Nikolsky farmstead and the Kurilovka village. At the same time, the AFU are concentrating manpower and equipment in Sudzha and Martynivka. There are also reports of strikes by “Lancet” drones and missile weapons on AFU concentrations in the border areas of Sumy and Kharkiv Regions, against units of the 80th Air Assault Brigade, 41st Mechanized Brigade, and the “South” Special Operations Center (for some reason, this unit is referred to by its 2020 name in Russian reports, the “73rd Reconnaissance Center of Special Operations”). Notably, there is information about a strike on a concentration of Spanish-speaking foreign mercenaries.

▪️ In Chasiv Yar, after the liberation of the Refractory Plant, the fighting has shifted to the “Novoseverny” neighborhood. To the south, heavy fighting continues for the residential areas.

▪️ From the Pokrovske direction, there are reports of the success of our troops in Kotlino and Udachne, indicating the implementation of the plan to encircle the city from the southwest. The enemy’s resources acknowledge the loss of control over mine No. 2 of the Pokrovske Mining Administration.

▪️ Northwest of the liberated Kurakhove, the Russian Armed Forces are straightening out the front line in the Petropavlivka-Shevchenko area. To the southwest, our units are fighting for Dachne. Battles are ongoing along the forest belts north and northeast of the settlement of Sukhyi Yaly.

▪️ North of the liberated Vremivka, our troops are storming Velyka (Velyka) Novosilka from the north, east, and southeast. The fall of the enemy garrison, deprived of logistics and supplies, is just a matter of time, and there is no need to rush now.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, the AFU continue to strengthen their positions by deploying foreign mercenaries and transferring equipment, which is becoming a priority target for Russian artillery, drones, and aviation. Our pilots struck enemy positions near Temyrivka. At the same time, the enemy struck the courthouse building in Vasylivka with artillery.

▪️ In Belgorod Region, Shebekino was subjected to strikes. The village of Murom was attacked by an FPV drone. In Krasnoyaruzhsky District, the village of Grafovka was attacked by two kamikaze drones. In the village of Cheremoshne in Belgorod District, a drone struck a passenger car. The village of Tishanka in Volokonovsky District was subjected to enemy shelling.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_20.html