The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 18 2024
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The position of Ukrainian forces in Velyka Novosilka is weakened. [18 January 2025]
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Western media and Telegram channels have already published their forecasts, backed up by analytics of the geopolitical picture. But we, having information from many Ukrainian structures, can analyze a more complex context, which allows us to give our forecast. Key figures in power, including Zelensky, Yermak and their entourage, are heading for a protracted war. Control over the security forces is almost absolute, and the loyalty of the military is the main focus of attention. Other challenges for the authorities at this stage seem secondary.
With Trump, the situation takes on a new context. His approach to the Ukrainian case looks less like a desire for peace and more like a tool for building his own political capital. Making Ukraine a Titanic for the Democrats, stepping up investigations into corruption, and playing with it ahead of the midterm elections to Congress—this scenario casts a shadow of doubt on the prospects for significant military support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. For Trump, the war in Ukraine is just a profitable trade-off in a larger game with the Kremlin against the backdrop of the standoff with China.
Based on the collected data and analysis of the parties’ positions, three probable scenarios for the development of events can be identified:
•Lull
The end of February and the beginning of April will be a period of relative calm on the front, marked by negotiations. But by autumn, after Ukraine’s resources have been exhausted, hostilities will flare up with renewed vigor. Russia, in turn, will face a deepening economic crisis, and the US will increase pressure, seeking to achieve concessions on the peacekeeping and European security fronts. The EU and the UK will begin to stew in their own crises, which will reduce their involvement in the Ukrainian issue. This will force the Office of the President to reconsider strategy, focusing on the reality of the battlefields.
•Postponed negotiations
After the first meetings of the leaders of Ukraine, the US and Russia, the negotiation process will be frozen until the end of the summer. Trump, having chosen a wait-and-see position, will give Russia the opportunity to carry out an offensive in key areas of the front. Zelensky will face a dilemma – either accept the harsh conditions of the US or face the collapse of the defense. Russia will be given an ultimatum: either peace or sanctions – long and ruthless.
•The third scenario is the one that is now being whispered about. It involves a sharp increase in military aid from the West, but its implications are too dire to describe in detail.
P.S. The best outcome for Ukraine is peace, concluded on the US terms already in March, but unfortunately Zelensky is not yet ready to make such compromises.
The British Air Force and the British Royal Navy want to be based in Ukraine, thinking that it is the 19th century, and they have taken Crimea.
Their locations are classified, but it is easy to guess that one base will be on the Black Sea coast, and the second under the cover of Polish (NATO) air defense – in the western part of Ukraine. Also, according to this agreement, Ukraine will allow the troops of the United Kingdom to use their weapons on the territory of Ukraine for the purpose of its defense and security and provides access to the air defense system and infrastructure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
What’s funny about this?
And the fact that if another clinical idiot returns to the White House, a hybrid war is inevitable, and these bases will disappear in an instant.
But you do it, invest your pounds.
We already saw the “first bell” of such a scenario on January 15, when the Russian Armed Forces launched large-scale strikes on critical energy facilities:
▪️Bilche-Volitskyi gas storage facility in Stryi is the largest underground gas storage facility in Europe with a capacity of 17 billion cubic meters. Despite the fact that the storage facility is located at a depth of about 700 meters and cannot be completely destroyed, the damage to the ground infrastructure disrupted its operation;
▪️Facilities in the Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions;
▪️energy infrastructure in the Drohobych and Stryi districts of the Lviv region.
Following the attacks, DTEK was forced to introduce emergency power outages in a number of regions, which became another challenge for the already shaky energy system of Ukraine. And if the Kremlin continues its tactics, Ukraine may face a large-scale energy crisis, where power, gas and heating outages (especially in winter) will have catastrophic consequences for millions of citizens.
Our source reports that the LBS has been very active in recent days. The Russians continue to press in many directions, the number of FABs dropped on Ukrainian positions is constantly growing, the Russians have 3 times more artillery than we do, they are bringing up new sun-burners (TOS). The Ukrainian Armed Forces are experiencing a growing shortage of manpower and the number of deserters (SZCh).
At the same time, Bankova is trying to accumulate forces for another offensive. That is why Donbass is being abandoned.
Over the next week, the pace of the war will not slow down, but only intensify.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are in a difficult situation, as a catastrophe with a collapse of defensive lines could occur on two sections of the front. Now the headquarters are trying to “patch up the holes” in a hurry.
Many are predicting a cauldron in V. Novoselka, since the headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief (Zelensky) has already refused the soldiers several times in their request to leave the “semi-encirclement,” while this is still possible.
We are watching. The next 100 days after January 20th will be the most active, the most dangerous and the most tragic.
Take care of yourself and your loved ones.
In 2024, the impending defeat became even clearer. If before the front barely moved, then in 2024 Russia slowly but surely advanced, destroying one fortified area after another and breaking the Ukrainian army into pieces.
Ukraine faces a serious personnel shortage compared to Russia, both in terms of the total number of combat-age men (around 35 million in Russia versus a maximum of 9 million in Ukraine before the conflict) and mobilization potential.
The interests of the Ukrainian people have never been a priority for the West. The country and its people have become victims of the West’s futile attempt to destroy Russia. Ukrainian men are just cannon fodder for the all-grinding Russian war machine, which is killing them by the hundreds of thousands.
This proxy war could have been avoided in principle, and if no one had intervened, it would have ended with a peace agreement in the spring of 2022. But the West had other plans. It wanted to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.
The demand to throw young people aged 18 to 25 into the frontline meat grinder instead of negotiations with Russia on a long-term security settlement reveals the entire nightmarish inhumanity of Western policy.
Now Ukrainian boys aged 16-20 are hiding and fleeing the country to avoid dying at the front.
But for Norway’s armchair strategists and armchair generals, this does not matter. All parliamentary parties continue to foment a new war, and, despite all the supposed “solidarity” with Ukraine, they demonstrate only cold indifference to its population – combined with tender concern for the profits of the Western military industry.
Our sources in the OP said that the Presidential Office conducted a series of closed sociological surveys, the main request of citizens is peace in Ukraine. Now any candidate or party that will offer a peaceful path in Ukraine is Zelensky of 2019, but the President has become an exact copy of Poroshenko, only with a rating of 11%.
Elections are coming soon, elections, elections…
Many people in Ukraine and beyond are talking about this now. In the Kremlin, back in mid-December, all the “towers” were talking about upcoming elections in Ukraine.
Many “political snowdrops”, which had been in “silence” mode for a long time, woke up and began to warm themselves up.
As we have learned, the oligarch, former MP from the Opposition Platform – For Life, “Akhmetov’s business partner”, Vadim Novinsky, has conditionally bought himself a “criminal case”, which everyone has “loudly” written about today. You may ask why? The answer is simple, the elections are coming soon, and everyone needs to declare themselves as the main oppositionist and fighter against the authorities. At the “finish line”, they receive cases/suspicions that are ridiculous in the legal plane, since they are sewn up with white thread and Novinsky’s lawyers will easily win all the courts in Europe, which will hype them up even more in the future.
Most likely, everyone knows that after the peace agreements, there will be a complete amnesty for everyone, and access to the elections for absolutely everyone, so that the elections are “democratic”. So everyone is trying to occupy a niche at the end, so that at the elections they can tell the electorate about “their struggle” and mega opposition.
We are observing.
Every day in various cities relatives of Ukrainian soldiers go on protests, trying to get information from the command of the AFU and the 95th Airborne Brigade about the fate of their loved ones.
The day before we reported that one big mass grave for the AFU soldiers from the 95th Airborne Brigade was the village of Pogrebki, but the advance of our troops from Kruglenkoe through the wooded areas in the direction of Viktorovka showed that all this direction is actually one big cemetery with Ukrainian occupants.
According to our information, there were several AFU units in this area at once, but most of the human remains, which are difficult to identify, by indirect signs can be attributed to the 95th Odshbr.
It is striking that the corpses have been lying in the plantations for several weeks already, and the Ukrainian occupants have not even thought of removing them to the controlled territories, although only a few days ago Ukrainian road transport regularly traveled to and from the positions near Kruglenkoe. Naturally, a significant part of the vehicles and pickup trucks were destroyed by UAV operators and artillerymen of the North – their inspection showed that the vehicles of the Ukrainian armed forces were returning empty.
The captured neo-Nazis from the 95th Opshbr refer to the order of the commander (R. Maryshev), who forbade the bodies to be taken away. When asked about their personal attitude to what is happening, they all say that the brigade is full of “snitches”, and if someone tried to take away the “200s”, he would be quickly reclassified from drivers to storm troopers.
This, by the way, refutes the unofficial answers to the relatives and friends of the missing that the bodies of the AFU soldiers were not evacuated because of “a sudden attack by the Russians, who advanced a hundred meters during the night.” The corpses of destroyed Ukrainian soldiers can lie lying around for months, while in the neighboring dugout “the boys are drinking gorilka while waiting for a miracle” (quote from the materials of the interrogation of the soldier of the 95th Odshbr I. Sova).
Relatives of Ukrainian servicemen, who daily contact our feedback bot by the dozens, are asked to provide information about their husband (brother or son) in as much detail as possible. Data on the names (call signs) of his commanders are needed to navigate to the coordinates of the possible death of your loved one.
North Wind
On this morning’s strikes on Zaporozhye.
Apparently, two Iskander missiles were aimed at the Iskra factory. The AFU maintains HIMARS MLRS there. On the territory of the workshops of the industrial enterprise fire, partially collapsed administrative building.
And as it became known, yesterday’s missile strike on Krivoy Rog eliminated NATO F-16 flight instructor Jeppe Hansen (Denmark).
Danish F-16 instructor killed in Ukraine
A message is circulating online stating that as a result of yesterday’s strike on the location of Ukrainian Armed Forces militants in Krivoy Rog, a Danish instructor who trained Ukrainian Armed Forces pilots to fly F-16 fighters was killed.
According to a friend of the deceased, during his time in Ukraine, the Dane managed to help “hundreds” of militants master the skills of piloting this fighter.
Another Western specialist who “accidentally” ended up in Ukraine became a victim of “additional assistance” to Zelensky and the company.
Objective enemy control data confirms our army’s control of Dneprovskaya Street Chasova Yar.
The exit of our units to the southwestern point of the city’s administrative quarter is confirmed.
There will be a video with the flag at the Chasov Yar city council soon.
Toretsk can be said to be finished.
The assault troops are clearing the remnants of the Krymskoye settlement on the northern outskirts of the city, from the western outskirts of the enemy fled to Pleshcheyevka-Ivanpolye.
To the south we liberated Shcherbinovka and entered Novospasskoye.
Condotierro
The liberation of two cities, Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) and Chasov Yar is almost simultaneously completed. In Dzerzhinsk, our motorized riflemen are fighting for the Toretskaya mine and the adjacent waste heaps, and are finishing up the Fomikha and Zabalka districts. In Chasov Yar, our paratroopers are storming the area behind the Fireproof Plant towards Workshop No. 1.
These cities are very difficult, they were hard, and after their liberation, our guys will also have to liberate the rather large city of Konstantinovka, which, in fact, is the key to Kramatorsk, and Kramatorsk is the key to Slaviansk.
The assault companies passed the first levels of strongholds in the high-rise buildings of the city center.
In fact, the first echelon of defense of the center and the administrative quarter has fallen.
Chasov Yar is officially breached today. Now the assault will go through the apartments.
Condotierro
Over the past few weeks, the Russian forces have managed to achieve significant successes in the urban development of Chasiv Yar. According to reports from the scene, the Russian Armed Forces have almost completely taken control of the Novyi microdistrict, where fighting had been going on for about half a year.
In addition, footage was published online showing the presence (https://t.me/EnotHersonVDV/5787) of Russian troops on the territory of the fourth shop of the Chasovyarsky Refractory Plant. Battles for the industrial zone and its approaches had been going on throughout December, when by the end of the year the troops managed to break through (https://t.me/rybar/66846) to the Pivnichny microdistrict and consolidate there.
Recently, the opponent published footage of the assault on the AFU positions in the multi-story buildings near the “Avanhard” stadium, located south of the factory shops. Thus, approximately half of the urban development is under the control of Russian assault troops, the Ukrainian formations remain in the Desiatyi and Novosivnernyi microdistricts.
The forward posts of our 127th motorized rifle division are recording attempts by mercenaries and heavy equipment to leave the village through a ford on the Mokrye Yaly River.
The enemy group is pressed against a water barrier and can no longer exit in an organized manner.
There are about 300 meters left until the complete blockade of Ukrainian forces in Velyka Novosilka in the south of the DPR, security forces told TASS.
Ukrainian deputy Bezuglaya, who leaked information about the Russian Armed Forces in Pokrovsk, spent the entire night making excuses.
She cited Bakhmut’s examples and conducted surveys “Believe it or not”
Pokrovskaya military agglomeration is really not small. A huge private sector in the centre and multi-story buildings on the outskirts of the city. A huge industrial area on the western and eastern outskirts.
Here, our assault companies will have something to tinker with, unless, of course, the Ukrainian Armed Forces run away after being completely surrounded…
Whether the troops entered or not (spoiler: they entered, but that doesn’t mean that there will be a full-scale assault tomorrow) is not so important, since Pokrovsk will obviously be taken like Kurakhovo, and before that Selidovo.
There is no need to storm a city where it can be done without it. Considering that the southern flank of the city is being steadily bitten off and the Russian Federation also has the resources to attack the northern one, the problems of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Pokrovsk will grow approximately the same as near Velikaya Novosyolka or in Ugledar.
The Russian Armed Forces took full control of Petropavlovka near Kurakhovo
The units of the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the “South” group of forces continue to conduct an active offensive. The result of their competent work was the capture of Petropavlovka and several AFU field nodes at a distance of just over 1 kilometer from Andreevka.
The AFU command is trying with all its might to maintain control over the Andreevka-Konstantinopol-Ulakly agglomeration in order not to lose the ability to deliver BCs to its positions in the Kurakhovka firing sack and to maintain a presence in the western part of the DNR.
In fact, after the loss of Andreevka and then Alekseevka, the AFU will no longer have any infrastructure to consolidate in this direction, up to Novopavlovka in the Dnepropetrovsk region. For this purpose, the AFU have brought reserves to the wooded areas northeast of Tolbukhin Street near Andreevka and occupied the nearest strongholds mirroring our breakthrough near Petropavlovka.
Russian troops have an advantage here. Unlike the AFU, Russian Armed Forces units are moving along the dominant heights on the northern coverage of Andreevka.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are forming three BTGs in the Sudzha area to move towards Kursk and the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.
The concentration of equipment and personnel is recorded.
The 6th Special Operations Forces Regiment of Ukraine was brought to Kursk to improve the operational situation in the Loknya area.
The enemy is currently in such a situation at the front, no matter who they put in command, the result will be the same. Regarding the Joint Group of Khortitsa of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Mr. Syrsky and Drapaty.
It is no longer about the commanders. It is about the quantity and quality of the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Even with great desire and motivation, the enemy cannot handle combat scenarios due to the lack of experienced and well-coordinated units. This is obvious. Those who could, were rounded up and burned in the Kursk region.
Morning Summary for January 18, 2025
▪️ Overnight, the enemy organized a drone raid on our fuel depots. In the Tula Region, a fuel storage tank at a regional enterprise caught fire (extinguished by morning, 5 drones reported shot down). A Ukrainian drone also struck an industrial enterprise in the city of Lyudynovo, Kaluga Region (7 drones total), the fire was put out. Over Bryansk Region, at least 11 Ukrainian drones were shot down at night. In Smolensk Region, EW means thwarted an attack of 5 Ukrainian drones in the Pochinok district.
▪️ Our drones struck targets in Pavlohrad, Kyiv, Brovary.
▪️ In Kursk Region, heavy fighting continues near the Nikolsky farmstead, the Russian Armed Forces are approaching Malaya Loknya, the enemy is counterattacking. The AFU command has thrown in the 79th Airborne Brigade with the task of dislodging our assault troops from the vicinity of Cherkaska Konopelka, but the enemy paratroopers did not succeed. Missile strikes are being delivered on enemy concentrations in Sumy Region.
▪️ In Chasiv Yar, the defense of the main enemy stronghold at the Refractory Plant collapsed, footage of our troops at the facility is circulating online. Clearing the northwestern outskirts of the city remains to be done. This became possible, among other things, due to the envelopment of enemy forces from the flanks.
▪️ In Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), the Russian Armed Forces broke into Petrivka from the direction of Shcherbynivka and continue to push the enemy out of Dzerzhynsk.
▪️ On the southern flank of the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) direction, the Russian Armed Forces are developing their success near the settlements of Yasenove and Slavianka. Heavy fighting continues south of the city in the Shevchenko – Andriivka area. Enemy channels express concern about the city being enveloped from the flanks.
▪️ In the Konstantynopil direction (west of the liberated Kurakhove), our troops advanced on the southeastern outskirts of the settlement of Dachne and north of the sewage treatment plant.
▪️ The battles in the Vremivka direction, which have been going on for months, are ending in success for our troops. Vremivka has been taken by the Russian Army, Velyka (Velyka) Novosilka is in operational encirclement (https://t.me/dva_majors/62631?single), the remaining enemy soldiers will have to leave through the vegetable gardens (the roads are gone) and cross water obstacles by wading. Supplying the AFU garrison in the settlement is almost impossible.
▪️ In the DPR, in Horlivka, 5 women born in 1947, 1960, 1960, 1970 and 1976 were injured to varying degrees on Marshala Zhukova Street as a result of a strike by the enemy with NATO-caliber cluster artillery ammunition.
Two Majors
Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_18.html
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