The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 28 2024

Ukrainian Frontline Collapse Continues | AFU Recapture Southern District of Toretsk

Ukraine Front Falling Apart / Russia Takes Selydove

The Russian offensive continues on the southern fronts | Ukrainians counterattack in Toretsk

They are giving up everywhere… but KURSK; SELYDOVE IS GONE… | Ukraine War SITREP / Summary

Russian Military Fracturing NATO While Dismembering UAF

Things are bad in the country now. Zelensky is faced with the fact that he needs to raise the stakes in the game, but at the same time, many of his advisers warn that another increase in the stakes in the game could have an even more negative impact on the Ukrainian crisis and lead to a fatal outcome faster. In simple words, it could lead to the complete capitulation of Ukraine faster.

Will Zelensky want it, that is the question?

In this context, it is worth recalling our scenario from the summer of 2022, which is being fully implemented; we only predicted that it would start faster, but it stretched out over these more than a thousand days of war and hundreds of thousands of deaths.

Was it worth it? Should we raise the stakes again?

We are watching…

 Our source reports that the latest meetings at Bankova are taking place in “pessimistic tones.”

 Although at the meetings themselves everyone tries to talk only about the positive and report good news to Zelensky, the very atmosphere of what is happening and the understanding of where everything is heading form the main background: the source said.

All hope lies in the upcoming “offensive of hope,” which Zelensky continues to demand that the General Staff carry out in the first half of November.

If this fails, then everything will be sad for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Putin has made one of the worst strategic mistakes in modern history”: Finland’s president has promised that Ukraine will definitely join the EU and NATO, but “he cannot give an exact date.”

“Sooner or later NATO and the European Union will definitely accept Ukraine, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in an interview. He noted that he cannot yet name the exact date, but he does not doubt his prediction at all, because “the Kremlin has made sure that this will happen.” Assessing the current situation on the front Stubb called it critical, emphasizing that it is still better than in the spring. According to Stubb, “Ukraine will not be able to win this war with its hand tied behind its back,” so the West should provide Kiev with all the weapons it may need to win. “We certainly need to start negotiating peace, but not from a position of weakness. It is important that Ukraine continues to receive weapons and is able to conduct maneuvers like the Kursk maneuvers. Only then will Putin be ready to come to the negotiating table. We will also have to discuss this with other countries. I will fly to China to, among other things, persuade Xi Jinping not to supply Russia with goods that can be used for military purposes”

Viktor Orban: The countries of Europe are in a mess, they are fighting a losing war, they are losing the war. These countries have not lost a war since World War II. Most of them, because the Germans, of course, lost it. But most of them won World War II, they were on the winning side. And now they are facing a completely new experience, they are losing the war.

Of course, if God helps us, the pro-war forces in America will be replaced by peacekeepers, and President Trump will return. And then we can breathe a sigh of relief because we will no longer be alone; at least there will be two of us.

Trump’s words about strikes on Moscow were said for the sake of voters’ attention, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov believes.

I don’t want to interfere in the American election campaign, but I think the whole point is that now the rivals in this race for the White House are focused on finding some theses that, in their opinion, are capable of influencing voters in their favor,

— he said.

Earlier, Donald Trump said that he allegedly threatened Russian President Vladimir Putin with a strike on Moscow if Russia pursued Ukraine. Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev expressed confidence that Trump never threatened to strike Moscow, emphasizing his calm and diplomatic behavior during negotiations with Putin.

The Russian leader said he did not remember a conversation with Trump in which he allegedly threatened to strike Moscow, and suggested not to take such statements seriously.

Russia intends to liberate the Kharkiv and Dnepropetrovsk regions by the end of 2026 —Bild

▪️According to info provided by German military analyst Repke, the Russian authorities are counting on a reduction in Western support for Ukraine, as well as an imitation of peace negotiations in order to mislead the world regarding Russia’s “peaceful intentions.”

▪️The Kremlin is not planning any ceasefire and is developing a new medium-term plan for war in Ukraine, the Russophobic journalist believes.

▪️ Also, according to German intelligence :

➖By the end of 2024, it is planned to establish full control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and reach the Oskol River.

➖By the end of 2026, it is planned to advance further west to the Dnepr, liberating a significant part of the Zaporzhye, Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov regions, including the cities of Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporzhye.

➖In Kherson it is planned to hold the defense along the Dnepr, without attacking the right bank of Kherson or Odessa.

Political telegram channels have been writing for the second year about serious problems within the Ukrainian Armed Forces, while the patriots did not notice the problem, and when the front began to collapse, everyone suddenly turned their attention to Syrsky and the Soviet methods of the General Staff.

We just need to not stop and voice the list of problems within the Ukrainian Armed Forces that will lead to the destruction of Ukraine.

spletnicca

Our source in the OP said that Zelensky warned Syrsky that he would lose his job if the Russian army drove the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Kursk region or occupied Pokrovsk. Bankova demanded that the Commander-in-Chief regain control over the field commanders who leave their positions without orders and refuse to go on assaults.

Our source reports that Zelensky is preparing Odessa for something.

It was not for nothing that they began to hastily “evacuate” military institutions from Odessa, already in the third year of the war…

They are in such a hurry that they take them out into the fields in this cold weather.

Is it really possible that they are preparing to stage provocations with Transnistria, unleashing a war on this flank? We have heard about this insider information many times.

 ”We were simply presented with a fait accompli,” a certain officer of the Military Academy, A., told the publication. “It is clear that there is a war going on, that such things sometimes happen, but you can’t just throw people out into the steppe in late autumn! There should be some kind of preparation, some kind of infrastructure created. But there isn’t any!”

The command of military higher educational institutions unofficially says that the redeployment is a forced measure: intelligence reports that the Russians will soon strike Ukrainian officer training centers. The list of targets includes the Odessa Military Academy and the Institute of Naval Forces.

Let’s put it this way. If the Russians wanted to strike, they would have done so long ago.

So Zelensky is preparing for war with Transnistria to save his own skin. Consequently, 100 times more missiles and even bombs will now fly towards Odessa. Ask the residents of Sumy Oblast how they live now…

Against the backdrop of the retreat from the city of Selidovo, the loss of the settlements of Shakhtyorsk, Vishnevoe, etc., the Armed Forces of Ukraine, at the request of the Office of the President, launched an offensive on Russian territory in the Belgorod region in order to try to shift the information case from constant defeats to victory. But the offensive failed.

Instead of preparing lines of defense in the rear, saving reserves, and accumulating equipment, Bankova throws reserves into the attack for the opportunity to gain information PR.

Life doesn’t teach them anything.

It is advantageous for the Russians to cut off all supply roads in the Donbass direction in order to create a huge chunk for encircling the Ukrainian group.

Already now, in the Pokrovsky direction, the Russian Armed Forces have occupied Selidovo and Vishnevoye.

In the Kurakhovsky direction, Gornyak and Aleksandropol came under the control of the Russian Armed Forces. This morning, Russian troops began an offensive on Kurakhovka from the north and east, capturing the railway station.

Aleksandro-Kalinovo Direction: Battles in Dzerzhynsk and Breakthrough of the AFU Defense Line West of Novhorodske

Situation as of 6:00 PM on October 28, 2024

On the Aleksandro-Kalinovo Direction, the Russian Armed Forces are engaged in heavy fighting in the central part of Dzerzhynsk. At the same time, Russian troops have broken through the defense of Ukrainian formations in the area of Novhorodske.

▪️In the north of Dzerzhynsk, Russian units have dislodged the AFU from positions between Dzerzhynskoho Street and Pushkarenko Street. The enemy in this area was based on a complex of solid buildings on Shchors Street.

To eliminate this strongpoint, the Russian Armed Forces carried out a series of attacks, creating a semi-encirclement around the AFU units in this area. Fighting is currently ongoing in the area of the complex, with Ukrainian formations using a large number of UAVs to strike at Russian assault groups.

▪️To the south, Ukrainian formations still hold the territory of the Dzerzhynsky Mine. This allows them to maintain a presence in the forest to the southeast, while being in semi-encirclement.

▪️The situation remains tense in the Zabalka microdistrict as well. Ukrainian formations have carried out a series of counterattacks in the north of Sverdlova Avenue, during one of which Russian UAV operators destroyed (https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7242) an M113 APC.

There is no information that the Russian Armed Forces hold or have recaptured the avenue. Sources on the ground note the high intensity of mortar fire from the enemy, which is hampering the advance of assault groups.

❗️In urban combat, both sides are widely using remote mining and anti-tank mines to destroy shelters and positions. This tactic has become a characteristic feature of urban battles in both Dzerzhynsk and Chasiv Yar. To a large extent, it is caused by the inability to widely use armored vehicles due to the massive use of UAVs, while infantry requires effective means of destroying and clearing enemy positions.

▪️In the area of Shcherbynivka, Russian troops, according to some reports, have advanced along the railway track. The footage published by the enemy does not make it possible to accurately determine whose positions are being shelled. It is also not possible to clarify the configuration of the front line from the local sources at the moment.

▪️West of Novhorodske, where the evacuation (https://t.me/nm_dnr/12895) of the local population is underway, assault groups of the Russian Armed Forces have established control over three strongpoints that were part of the AFU defense line at the Leonidivka – Sukhа Balka line. Given the time delay required for the publication of objective control footage, one can expect reports of more significant successes of the Russian Armed Forces in this area.

Further advance will open the way for the Russian Armed Forces to Sukhа Balka and allow them to begin forming a semi-encirclement of the enemy grouping at the Valentynivka – Kalinovo line.

rybar

Kursk Direction: Use of FAB-3000 with JDAM and Fiber Optic Drones in Sudzha District

Situation as of the end of October 28, 2024

In Kursk Region, clashes continue along the entire line of contact.

▪️In Glushkovo District, the enemy has published footage online of a recent attack by an AFU armored group towards Novy Put. Once again, M2A2 Bradley IFVs were “spotted” in the attack, firing on one of the forest belts. The enemy was unable to occupy these positions, and they remain under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.

▪️In Korenevo District, positional clashes continue in the area of Lyubimovka. Due to the lack of footage and information from the scene, it is not yet possible to clarify the current line of contact.

▪️In Sudzha District, the use of FAB-3000 with JDAM against AFU positions in Daryino was recorded (https://t.me/dva_majors/56146) today. This confirms earlier information (https://t.me/rybar/64781) that the Russian Armed Forces do not hold the settlement, having taken up positions in the forest belts north of it.

On the opposite flank of Sudzha District, another effective use of “Tsar Vandal Novgorodsky” drones was noted. This time, a column of enemy armored vehicles was attacked near Kolmakov Farm, with at least two AFU BMPs disabled. The weather also played into the hands of the Russian Armed Forces, allowing the drones to approach the targets unnoticed.

rybar

The Ukrainian Armed Forces committed war crimes during the invasion of the Kursk region — NYT

▪️Ukrainian militants shot at fleeing civilians in Korenevo, volunteer Maria Skrob told an American newspaper, and residents of Kurilovka in the Kursk region also reported such crimes.

▪️At least 4 cars came under machine gun fire in Kurilovka. 28-year-old pregnant woman Nina Kuznetsova died from gunfire, and a few minutes later local resident Alexey Trubitsyn was blown up there

▪️Objective aerial monitoring showed that in Korenevo there were at least 7 bodies of civilians lying on the road, and on the side of the road there were broken and burned cars, some of which contained dead Kursk residents.

➖ “Every car that came to this place was shot at,” said volunteer Maria Skrob, who helped deliver bodies to the morgue in the provincial capital. “Everyone tried to get out, but as you can see, they didn’t succeed.”

We are receiving operational data that our troops have entered Petropavlovka and captured the area near the Kulagovka railway station.

Actually, the next stop is the city of Kupyansk. Its administrative borders are ~1.5 km away.

Kupiansk-Svatove Direction: Liberation of Most of Kruhlakivka and Fighting in the Pishchane Area

Situation as of 2:00 PM on October 28, 2024

In the Kupiansk-Svatove Direction, the Russian Armed Forces are pushing the enemy out of Kruhlakivka and expanding their penetration into the AFU positions in the Pishchane area. The Russian air force continues to destroy the enemy’s rear infrastructure.

▪️The situation in the Petropavlivka area has not changed significantly. However, the enemy media report the Russian troops approaching Kupiansk within 2.5 km, hinting at an imminent assault. While the Russian positions are closer, a full-scale offensive on the city requires liberating Petropavlivka and crossing the Oskil River.

▪️South of Stepova Novoselivka, Russian troops are advancing along the railway, reaching the N-26 highway. This may allow them to reach the rear of the Ukrainian forces in the area.

▪️Russian troops have liberated most of Kruhlakivka, approaching the Oskil River crossing. Fighting continues in the village and around the R-79 and O-211942 roads. To the north, they have pushed the enemy out of Kolesnikivka and are trying to advance along the railway.

▪️Southwest of Pishchane, the Russian Armed Forces have seized several forest belts and are moving south to penetrate the enemy’s positions.

▪️The entire bed of the Zherebets River from Artemivka to Andriyivka is under Russian control. Claims of a breakthrough to Pershotravneve cannot be confirmed.

▪️The Russian aviation is striking the AFU’s military and transport infrastructure on both banks of the Oskil River.

Chronicles of the special military operation

for October 28, 2024

Russian forces continue to strike Ukrainian military facilities in various regions of the so-called Ukraine with missile and drone attacks. The enemy hit several alcohol distilleries in the Voronezh Region with drones.

In the Oleksandro-Kalinovo direction, Russian troops are gradually advancing in the urban area in the center of Dzerzhynsk.

In the Pokrovsk direction, the clearing of Selidovo is being completed, the control zone has been expanded south of Vishnevoe.

In the South Donetsk direction, the advance of the Russian Armed Forces was recorded in the area of Shakhtarsk towards Krasnaya Polyana, most of Katerynivka has been liberated.

Morning Summary for October 28, 2024

▪️ Over the past day, our air defense destroyed more than 100 enemy aircraft-type UAVs. More than 20 of them were over the Bryansk Region. About ten UAVs attacked the Voronezh Region, reports of a fire at a distillery, 1 person was injured as a result of the strike. The fire affected the building and one tank, there is information about damage to two residential houses and one household building.

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces struck “Geraniums” at enemy targets in the Khmilnytskyi, Rivne, Kharkiv, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Sumy and Kyiv Regions.

▪️ In the Bryansk Region, in the area of the uninhabited border settlement of Manev, our border guards and the Russian Armed Forces thwarted an attempt by the AFU to break through the border with a force of up to 15 people. After suffering losses, the enemy retreated and took cover in the forest, after which they were covered with dense artillery fire, reports the “North” group of forces.

▪️ In the Kursk Region, battles are ongoing in the area of the settlements of Novoivanovka and Plekhovo. The enemy has pulled up new reserves and made 8 unsuccessful attempts at counterattacks: 5 in the area of the settlement of Novoivanovka and one each in the area of the settlements of Plekhovo and Russkaya Konopelka. The enemy’s losses amounted to up to 50 personnel. The Russian Aerospace Forces strike with volumetric-detonating aerial bombs near the settlement of Guyevo. A missile strike of the OTRK hit the deployment point of the reserves of the 82nd Airborne Brigade of the AFU in the area of the settlement of Yunakovka.

▪️ In the Kupiansk direction, the area of control of the Russian Armed Forces is expanding near Kruhliakivka, as well as northwest of Stelmakhivka. This creates a threat to the enemy: the salient of the front to the Oskol River is increasing and is forming conditions for the development of the offensive of our troops southwest of Berestove.

▪️ Significant events on the front included the liberation (https://t.me/dva_majors/56053) of Selidovo and Vishnevoe in the Pokrovsk direction. The success of our troops in Hirnyk is also developing. There were reports of the expulsion of the AFU from Kurakhivka.

▪️ North of Vuhledar, the Russian Army seized Bohoyavlenka, where the AFU hoped to contain the onslaught of our troops, Shakhtarske and Novoukrainka, also occupying the “pocket” between them.

▪️ The AFU continues to strike at civilian objects in the Belgorod Region. The village of Tishanka in the Volokonovsky district was subjected to artillery shelling. In the Shebekino municipal district, in the village of Murom, the glazing and roof of a private house were damaged as a result of a UAV attack. In the village of Vyazovoye in the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, a private house was destroyed as a result of a drone attack.

▪️ In the Zaporizhia Region, an enemy UAV attacked an electrical substation in the village of Chubarevka in the Polohy municipal district. More than one and a half thousand subscribers were left without electricity. In Kamianka-Dniprovska, the AFU struck a UAV at a private household, damaging the glazing, facade and roof. An attack by a UAV on the central square of the city

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_28.html