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Different agenda's and various outlooks

Tuesday, April 29, 2025 21:06

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Gold (in USD) is firmly into the $3xxx. The election of D. Trump caused a gold slide from close to $2800 to around $2560. It proved to be short lived. Though by end 2024 the gold price only regained little, closing the year at $2625.

The inauguration sparked a gold rally, eclipsing the ‘election slide’ manifold. Gold firmed little early January creeping up to 2708 on January 20. It didn’t last until the end of January to break above the October 2024 high. By mid February $2900 was first reached. For a couple of weeks the gold price has been oscillating around $2900/Oz. But by mid March the ‘magic’ $3000 was broken, first intraday but immediately followed by a close above $3000 on Mar 17. The $3000 handle consolidated and by end March gold first quoted above $3100. Eary April brought a brief pull back below $3000. The bullish trend resumed and it took less than two weeks to bring the yellow metal within a sigh of $3500 intraday.

However impressive this looks in USD, it is less impressive to the gold investor abroad. Whereas the Euro has been close to parity to the USD even early January 2025, the greenback has weakened significantly, with the Euro rising to about $1.15. The gold price still didn’t surpass €3000/Oz.

Tariffs

Tariffs are the magic word. Aiming to bring down the trade deficit of the US with the rest of the world, their main result has been a collaps in consumer confidence in the US and a major slide of stock markets.

For a foreign investor, the weaker USD adds an extra 12% to the loss incurred. Whereas D. Trump has been rather vocal on wanting to have a less strong USD, this again resulted in unwanted side effects. Many national banks, now also those of western allies, are selling treasury notes, causing interest rates to rise, rather than to fall with sliding stock markets. If the flight to safety implies buying Euro, Yen or Pound Sterling, that is where long term interest rates are now trending down.

The weaker USD is already making imports in the US more expensive, thereby reducing the need for tariffs. But the genie is out of the bottle. Even if some tariffs are postponed or even called off, trade streams are interrupted or reduced. International sourcing and transport to and from the US of components or prefabricated products is becoming a risky business. Tariffs also imply higher production costs in the US, offsetting the weaker USD. Even without any potential counter tariffs of the exporting nations,, US exports don’t become more attractive.

The tariff war with China brought the trade with the US to a virtual halt. Chinese manufacturers may still export with a lower tariff from other Asian countries, while US manufacturers may still sell their products in China from their local Chinese relocated plants which used to export mainly to the US.

However if tariffs also cause an aversion from the brands of the “trade enemy”, even that can be negatively impacted.

The partial recovery of international stock markets is drawing a precise picture: export oriented manufacturers recovered only little, while stocks serving local markets have been regaining ground.

Source: https://gwyde.blogspot.com/2025/04/different-agendas-and-various-outlooks.html

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