ES Morning Update May 7th 2025
Today is the day. Big move coming after the FOMC today. I still think we go down and down hard… but I still think there’s a good chance that we’ll see a squeeze up first, which should hit the FP on the SPY of 586.86, and then we reverse. That seems crazy as it’s quite a good move higher to reach that level, but we seen more then that on 4/9, which was almost 700 points!
So there’s no reason to think we can’t do 200-250 points today after the meeting. If you are a bear you want to see the squeeze so that current shorts are taken out, as that will open the door for a bigger drop with not many shorts left.
I’d prefer to see the move up “front run” the meeting so that it can disappoint and the market can then reverse hard right afterwards, but the more common pattern is to continue then choppy range into it, and then make a big move.
Now… there’s also equal odds that they don’t run up to the FP first and then drop. I’ve been in this spot before where I was looking to short the hitting of an upside FP but it never came and I missed the move. So I have to be aware that the high might already be in. There’s no way to know the “when” part for any FP hitting. Only that they do hit at some point. Ideally we hit it going into the meeting, but so far the market is still in the same chippy range here before the open as it waits on the meeting.
Nothing more to add here, so I’ll keep it short and end it here. Good luck to all the traders too. I hope you all catch the big move coming.
Have an blessed day.
Source: http://reddragonleo.com/2025/05/07/es-morning-update-may-7th-2025/
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