Read the Beforeitsnews.com story here. Advertise at Before It's News here.

By Humble Student of the Markets (Reporter)
Contributor profile | More stories

Story Views
Now:
Last hour:
Last 24 hours:
Total:

A Trend Model update: Still cautious

Saturday, May 3, 2025 14:22

% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.

My Trend Asset Allocation Model is a market timing model that has been running since 2013. While the model only issues buy, hold and sell signals for stocks, investors nevertheless need to make their own decisions on how much to buy and sell. Based on my out-of-sample signals, I created a model portfolio by varying the equity weight by 20% around a 60% SPY and 40% IEF benchmark. The turnover characteristics of the model portfolio is manageable, averaging 3.5 signals per year in the last five years.

The risk-adjusted returns of the model portfolio are strong. The model has beaten the 60/40 benchmark on 1, 2, 3 and 5-year time horizons, as well from inception for the period from December 31, 2013 to April 29, 2025. In addition, it was able to achieve these returns with controlled risk, equivalent to roughly an 85/15 stock/bond asset mix with 60/40 risk. As the dotted line in the chart depicting relative performance shows, the model mainly reached the superior risk-adjusted returns by sidestepping the really ugly bear markets over the study period.

1 year: Model 9.5% vs. 60/40 8.7%
2 years: Model 13.3% vs. 60/40 11.4%
3 years: Model 9.6% vs. 60/40 7.7%
5 years: Model 10.9% vs. 60/40 9.0%

Here is what it’s saying now.

The full post can be found here.

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.

Source: http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/2025/05/a-trend-model-update-still-cautious.html

Before It’s News® is a community of individuals who report on what’s going on around them, from all around the world.

Anyone can join.
Anyone can contribute.
Anyone can become informed about their world.

"United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.

Before It’s News® is a community of individuals who report on what’s going on around them, from all around the world. Anyone can join. Anyone can contribute. Anyone can become informed about their world. "United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.

LION'S MANE PRODUCT

Try Our Lion’s Mane WHOLE MIND Nootropic Blend 60 Capsules

Mushrooms are having a moment. One fabulous fungus in particular, lion’s mane, may help improve memory, depression and anxiety symptoms. They are also an excellent source of nutrients that show promise as a therapy for dementia, and other neurodegenerative diseases. If you’re living with anxiety or depression, you may be curious about all the therapy options out there — including the natural ones.Our Lion’s Mane WHOLE MIND Nootropic Blend has been formulated to utilize the potency of Lion’s mane but also include the benefits of four other Highly Beneficial Mushrooms. Synergistically, they work together to Build your health through improving cognitive function and immunity regardless of your age. Our Nootropic not only improves your Cognitive Function and Activates your Immune System, but it benefits growth of Essential Gut Flora, further enhancing your Vitality.

Our Formula includes: Lion’s Mane Mushrooms which Increase Brain Power through nerve growth, lessen anxiety, reduce depression, and improve concentration. Its an excellent adaptogen, promotes sleep and improves immunity. Shiitake Mushrooms which Fight cancer cells and infectious disease, boost the immune system, promotes brain function, and serves as a source of B vitamins. Maitake Mushrooms which regulate blood sugar levels of diabetics, reduce hypertension and boosts the immune system. Reishi Mushrooms which Fight inflammation, liver disease, fatigue, tumor growth and cancer. They Improve skin disorders and soothes digestive problems, stomach ulcers and leaky gut syndrome. Chaga Mushrooms which have anti-aging effects, boost immune function, improve stamina and athletic performance, even act as a natural aphrodisiac, fighting diabetes and improving liver function. Try Our Lion’s Mane WHOLE MIND Nootropic Blend 60 Capsules Today. Be 100% Satisfied or Receive a Full Money Back Guarantee. Order Yours Today by Following This Link.

Comments

Online:
Visits:	1,692,756,246
Stories:	8,406,708