The world that was

Six days to vote and the last major party is releasing its plan. Tax cuts, spending cuts, frugality, belt-tightening and less is more.

In another time, this makes sense. But not this time. At least, not if you want to get elected.

Canadians have lost confidence in much around them. Just look at the pace of real estate sales. In the GTA, for example, they’re 40% below the five-year average and half of the ten-year norm. About 10,000 homes should sell in an April. Realtors will be giddy if it comes in at five grand.

Stock markets have been equally disappointing. The grind down has been tedious, worrisome and seems endless. Prices will recover for a few hours, or a day, then plop again on the latest Trump social media dump. Last week it was tariffs (again). This week the Fed boss. Now the White House is gutting medical research (tens of billions a year) because universities hire too many brown and female people.

Well, look at this measure of economic uncertainty across the globe. A record high.

In a world of doubt, who to trust?

Only Covid – when the economy shut down, unemployment hit 14%, the fastest bear stock market ever took place, retail went to pieces, offices shut and we were all going to die – rivalled today. But this is worse. Folks expect a recession and layoffs. Four years of chaos seem to lie ahead. In a country where people are pickled in debt, where most live pay-to-pay and our biggest friend turns against us, fear wins. No wonder real estate is tanking, The Bay folding and the politician telling you how bad things are is unhelpful.

The IMF just dropped its forecast for global growth. Gold – a barbaric and volatile relic from the days when people trusted rocks more than leaders – is at a record level. The US dollar has lost so much ground that the loonie has rocketed ahead three cents in a few weeks. And, as Ryan and I have been detailing lately – the very foundation stones of the world’s financial system, US Treasury bonds, have been debased by concerned investors.

In short, it’s a scary world for families who have been cutting their finances close to the vest. They can hardly survive the higher prices a trade war will bring, and certainly not job loss, layoffs or reduced income. It’s why the Liberal platform proposed increased government spending to paper over the hard times, and equally why the Conservatives say they will deal with the pain through reduced taxes.

But Poilievre also promises less. Defund the CBC, as Trump is starving public broadcasting, and dump a third of government workers, as Elon Musk’s marauders are doing in Washington. Poilievre’s platform also aims at closing ‘drug dens’ (safe injection sites) in many locations and calls for the erecting of new statues to honor Canadian warriors – plus bringing back plastic straws. And Canada’s foreign aid would be nipped, as the White House has done to USAID. It’s a weird wish list.

The Conservatives, like the Liberals, would run deficits for the next four years. Poilievre would add $100 billion in debt without increasing support spending. The Libs would double that new debt, but direct much of it ($128 billion) to compensating for Trumpian actions that hurt Canada.

Neither party has forecast a date for balancing the budget, that moment when taxes equal spending. Maybe it won’t come here, as it will never happen in the States.

“Canadians have been pinching pennies long enough,” PP said in the GTA this morning. “It’s time for the government to start pinching pennies as well.”

If he were running against the wokey and excessive spending of Justin Trudeau in a time of Joe Biden, lingering inflation and rampant pronouns, this would resonate.

But that world left us in January. Now we’re worried. Canadians want dad. The guy who can drive you home through the storm. Lend you cash for the cell bill. Let you stay in the basement. Be there.

This election was Pierre’s to lose. He did.

About the picture: “This character spent the winter foraging under the birdfeeder, here on the shores of Georgian Bay, north of normal range for possums,” writes Fraser. “Time changes, shit happens, and I read this blog every morning – I have since its inception. Thankyou Garth, keep doing it.”

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Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/04/22/the-world-that-was/