S&P 500 Key Levels – March 24
The S&P 500 Index is consolidating within a well-defined range between 5,600 and 5,700, reflecting investor indecision amid macroeconomic crosscurrents. The upper boundary near 5,700 has emerged as a short-term resistance level, with selling pressure intensifying as the index approaches this threshold. There is also visible hesitance to bid the market higher without a clear catalyst, particularly as market breadth remains fragile.
One focal point is the 200-day moving average at around 5,733—approximately 1.5% above Friday’s close. Traders appear to be watching closely to see if the index can challenge this level, which coincides with notable open interest and options activity, potentially amplifying volatility.
Notably, the 20-day moving average has recently crossed below the 200-day— to form the short-term “death cross” though not as strong a conviction of the 50-day cross but significant, nonetheless. This is the first such occasion the 20-day has been below the 200-day since January 2023, and while not always predictive of a bear market, it often serves as a warning signal of waning short-term momentum. Historically, these crossovers have introduced a period of heightened uncertainty and risk aversion, particularly when macro headwinds are present.
Tariff Day Looms
The market is now entering a catalyst-rich environment, with the key event being “Tariff Day” on April 2, when the U.S. is expected to formalize a new round of trade measures. Trump hinted at flexibility and the market responded by rallying. This looming policy risk has kept many investors on the sidelines, contributing to lower volume and reduced directional conviction.
Current positioning suggests that market participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach, unwilling to chase rallies while remaining cautious of downside surprises. This is reflected in increased hedging activity earlier in the month, though recent declines in volatility indices suggest a modest unwinding of protective bets.
Stay tuned, folks.
Source: https://global-macro-monitor.com/2025/03/23/sp-500-key-levels-march-24/
