#Economy & #Stocks Review Trade War Experts Populate Cyberspace

E&S Review

Much of today’s economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Trade War Experts Populate Cyberspace

The social media pundits will leap from one imagined crisis to the next, leveraging their extensive experience of TV shows and C-SPAN to weigh in on trade wars they have no real understanding of. Comments range from The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly.

The Good

stay out of the markets. regardless where this goes the general rule of thumb is to avoid trading during uncertain times

understand this

— Ruth Capital (@ruth_capital) February 2, 2025

The Bad

Four truths about tariffs:

1. Tariffs don’t cause inflation.
2. Tariffs lead to lower prices for American consumers.
3. Tariffs create American jobs.
4. Tariffs lead to lower income taxes.

I’ll prove each one of these statements in my letter to investors on Monday morning.…

— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) February 2, 2025

The Ugly

Trump’s tariffs on China will not hurt the American middle class – This is what trade expert Nazak Nikakhtar has been insisting for years. She explains why.

02:28 – Legal Authorities and Tariff Levels
04:05 – China’s Unfair and Harmful Trade Practices
07:39 – China’s Supply… pic.twitter.com/T8nxvsF8B7

— Jan Jekielek (@JanJekielek) January 20, 2025

Our role isn’t to spew out mindless comments that reinforce the majority’s misconceptions. This is the profit driver of social media. We discussed the setup, risks, and expectation for the future in the latest Economy & Stocks (E&S) Report, 02/02/25 Report – The Trade War Begins. Please subscribe to better understand what’s unfolding. The Trump Tariffs, potentially enacted only of the short-term, has neither created nor will fix the the dislocation within the global economy. A selloff in risk-on assets in early February has caught the majority’s attention, but the risks we’ve extensively discussed in the US Bond Report did not materialize since the election.

Please read more…

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