Changing Expectations About Timing and Number Rate Cuts in 2025 Notch S&P 500 Lower

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) was very little changed from the previous week’s close in the first week of February 2025. The index ended the trading week less than a quarter percentage point at 6,025.99 on Friday, 7 February 2025.

The biggest market-moving news came on that day, as a better-than-expected jobs report altered the expectation of Wall Street bulls that there will be at least two rate cuts in 2025.

Following the release of the January 2025 jobs report, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool moved the expected timing of the Fed’s next change Federal Funds Rate to 30 July (2025-Q3), when a quarter point reduction is anticipated. More significantly, the tool now anticipates that will be the only rate cut during 2025.

The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the effect of this change in expectations was to shift the forward-looking focus of investors from 2025-Q4 inward toward the nearer term investment horizon of 2025-Q2. We think investors are focusing on this quarter for its potential to see an earlier rate cut.

Here’s a recap of the week’s market-moving headlines, in which political noise involving tariffs was outweighed for effect by the change in expectations for the timing and number of interest rate cuts in 2025:

Monday, 3 February 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Trump imposes 25% on Canadian, Mexican imports, 10% on Chinese goods

• Trump pauses tariffs on Mexico and Canada, but not China

• Mexico, US reach deal to delay tariffs for one month
• U.S. tariffs on hold 30 days after Canada commits to beefing up border security

Oil prices gain as Trump tariffs stoke supply worries

• Trump’s tariffs to have limited impact on oil, gas prices, Goldman Sachs says

US manufacturing rebounds in January, inputs prices paid measure surges

US banks say demand for business loans rose in Q4 -Fed survey

Fed can be patient on rates while assessing impact of tariffs, Collins says

Bigger trouble, possible US trade deal developing in China:

• China home prices, sales slip further in January, report shows
• China factory activity growth slows in January, Caixin PMI shows
• Trump warns tariffs on China may increase

• China Reportedly Preparing Trade Talks With Trump After Weekend Tariff Shock
• China to propose restoring 2020 ‘Phase 1′ trade deal with US, WSJ reports

Bigger trouble developing in Japan, BOJ minions thinking about more rate hikes:

• Japan’s factory activity extends decline, optimism weakens, PMI shows
• BOJ debated weak-yen risk, scope for more rate hikes at Jan meeting, summary shows

Germany pulling Eurozone economy down more slowly:

• Euro zone factory activity sees signs of stabilisation, PMI shows

ECB minions get undesirable inflation news, but still thinking about more Eurozone interest rate cuts:

• Euro zone inflation rises but March rate cut still likely

• ECB’s Simkus sees cut in March and a couple more
• ECB ‘not quite there’ with rate cuts but cautious flexibility needed, Kazimir says
• ECB’s Villeroy says Trump tariffs will increase economic uncertainty

Wall Street cuts losses after Trump delays tariffs on Mexico for a month

Tuesday, 4 February 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil mixed as Trump restores pressure on Iran, tariff drama caps prices

• Trump signs memo aiming to block Iran from achieving nuclear weapon
• China tariff retaliation targets its modest US energy imports
• Trade war with China casts dark cloud over new US LNG projects

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China launches limited tariffs after Trump imposes sweeping new levies

• China tariff retaliation targets its modest US energy imports
• China’s curbs on exports of strategic minerals

• A guide to the five metals whose export China has restricted

BOJ minions claim they have a target for Japan’s inflation:

• BOJ aims to stabilise overall CPI around 2% target, governor Ueda says

Nasdaq ends up 1%, S&P, Dow rise as focus shifts to earnings from tariff tussle

Wednesday, 5 February 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil drops amid rising US crude inventories, Sino-US tariff war
• US Postal Service suspends inbound parcels from China, Hong Kong

• ‘De minimis’: the trade perk Trump ended as part of China tariffs

Record high imports pressure US trade deficit

Fed minions say they’re going to cut rates, slowly:

• Fed’s Jefferson: Rates likely to fall over medium term
• Fed’s Jefferson: In no rush to reduce level of policy restraint

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• Chinese firms control around 75% of Indonesian nickel capacity, report finds
• China’s services activity grows at slower pace, Caixin PMI shows

BOJ minions getting the higher inflation they’ve wanted for decades:

• Japan’s service activity grows thanks to Asian demand, PMI shows
• Japan inflation-adjusted wages rise in December on jump in bonuses

ECB minions thinking about getting into digital currency game:

• ECB hopes Trump’s crypto plan will speed up digital euro

Nasdaq pulls out a win as Alphabet stems loss; S&P, Dow gain with Nvidia advance

• Alphabet shares bear brunt of worries on massive AI spend, sluggish cloud growth
• Gold demand up 1% in 2024, to remain supported by economic uncertainty, World Gold Council says

Thursday, 6 February 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil settles down after Trump repeats pledge to boost US supply

• US Permian oil output growth to slow in 2025 despite Trump’s plan, executives say

US banks raise equity to jumpstart deals, bolster balance sheets

Fed minions want to see worse job market to justify more rate cuts:

• Dallas Fed’s Logan signals rate cuts require US labor market cooling
• Goolsbee: Fed in solid place for eventual cuts though uncertainty means a slower approach

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• Trump’s de minimis cancellation is bad news for Temu, but worse for Shein

Other central banks more aggressive with rate cuts:

• Bank of England cuts rates, sees higher inflation and weaker growth

BOJ minions worry about higher inflation, thinking about more rate hikes to combat it:

• BOJ’s fresh take on labour crunch opens door for more rate hikes
• Hawkish BOJ policymaker urges raising rates to at least 1%

S&P ends higher, Dow declines as Wall Street wades through earnings ahead of January jobs report

• Wall Street ends mixed in choppy trading; Amazon, jobs report in focus

Friday, 7 February 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil set for third straight weekly decline amid tariff concerns

• US drillers add oil and gas rigs for second week in a row, Baker Hughes says

Trump pauses de minimis repeal as packages pile up at US customs

US job growth slows in January; unemployment rate at 4.0%

• Traders see Fed cutting rates in June after jobs data

Fed minions say all’s well with economy, no need to rush rate cuts:

• Fed officials see healthy jobs market, no rate-cut rush

• Fed’s Kashkari sees policy rate ‘modestly lower’ at end-2025

Fed Monetary Policy Report flags solid economy, elevated markets

Bigger stimulus developing in China:

• China’s January bank lending seen surging, but demand still fragile: Reuters poll

ECB minions get academic support for more Eurozone rate cuts:

• ECB still has several rate cuts to go before hitting ‘neutral’ level, paper finds

Nasdaq, Dow, S&P end down 1% as inflation, trade war worries overshadow mixed jobs report

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool‘s projection of what real GDP growth will be in the 2025-Q1 held steady at +2.9%, the same as last week’s forecast.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon featuring a Wall Street bull who’s shocked that a good jobs report means fewer rate cuts”. We modified the to add the headline and to remove an excessive number of fingers. Unlike last week’s editorial cartoon, which we left completely alone despite all its glorious AI-generated weirdness because it fit so well with our discussion!…