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Wall Street Bulls Gets Some Rate Cut Mojo Back as S&P 500 Has Best Week in Months

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An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull taking a box that says '2025 RATE CUTS' from a bear. Image generated with Microsoft Copilot Designer.

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) had its best trading week since the 2024 elections. The index closed up 2.9% to end the week at 5,996.66.

The index had its best day on Wednesday, 15 January 2025 thanks to a better-than-expected consumer price inflation report. Although headline inflation ran hot, thanks largely to food prices, which are showing the effects of a reduced supply of eggs because of bird flu. Less volatile components of the Consumer Price Index were muted however, which firmed the odds for at least one rate cut during 2025 and raised the potential for additional rate cuts.

After the tamer than expected inflation data, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool gives much stronger odds of the Fed acting to cut interest rates by a quarter point on 18 June (2025-Q2). Meanwhile, the probability of another rate cut later in the year also rose, but as yet remain below 50%, with December 2025 coming the closest to that threshold.

That’s a significant development because the latest update of the alternative future chart shows investors shifting their forward-looking attention toward the distant future quarter of 2025-Q4.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2024Q4 - Standard Model (m=+1.5 from 9 March 2023) - Snapshot on 17 Jan 2025

Here’s the full rundown of the trading week’s market moving headlines:

Monday, 13 January 2025
  • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Bigger bailouts, mixed economic signs developing in China:
  • Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone, ECB minions worry about keeping Eurozone interest rates too high:
  • Dow, S&P, Nasdaq ended trading mixed ahead of inflation and earnings figures
  • Tuesday, 14 January 2025
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • US inflation still slowing as producer prices rise below expectations in December
  • BOJ minions thinking about maybe hiking rates, mixed economic signs developing in Japan:
  • ECB minions thinking they can’t lower Eurozone interest rates faster:
  • S&P, Nasdaq, Dow finish mixed after cooler producer inflation data
  • Wednesday, 15 January 2025
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • US 30-year mortgage rate tops 7%, highest since May 2024
  • US importers rush in goods from China as Trump tariff threat looms
  • Oil gains capped by uncertainty over sanctions impact
  • Fed minions say they’re uncertain on direction of economy, but claim they’re beating inflation:
  • BOJ minions say they could hike rates as soon as next week, long-running problem for Japan’s economy to get worse:
  • Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, ECB minions thinking about more rate cuts:
  • ECB to cut rates four more times by mid-year, say economists – Reuters poll
  • Nasdaq ends with 2% rally, yields slump as core CPI inflation cools
  • Thursday, 16 January 2025
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Fed minions say they’re thinking about more rate cuts:
  • BOJ minions expected to hike Japan interest rates no later than March 2025:
  • ECB minions thinking about multiple rate cuts for the Eurozone:
  • Nasdaq, S&P, Dow end lower after rally ignited by rate-cut optimism
  • Friday, 17 January 2025
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • US single-family housing starts, permits hit 10-month high in December
  • US manufacturing output accelerates in December
  • US mid-sized banks ride industry upswing on robust fee income
  • Fed minions admit they’re failing to restrain Bidenflation:
  • Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
  • China kicks off subsidised auto trade-ins
  • China’s vast refining sector faces shakeout as fuel demand peaks
  • ECB minions getting excited to cut Eurozone interest rates more:
  • Bulls bellow as Wall Street surges to best week since November election
  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool‘s projection of real GDP growth rate for the now-past quarter of 2024-Q4 rose to +3.0% from the previous week’s +2.7% annualized growth estimate. The BEA’s first estimate of GDP in 2024-Q4 will be released on 30 January 2024, when the GDPNow tool will shift to start nowcasting GDP for the current quarter of 2025-Q1.

    Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull taking a box that says ’2025 RATE CUTS’ from a bear.”



    Source: https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/01/wall-street-bulls-gets-some-rate-cut.html


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