Food Security Update | World Bank Solutions to Food Insecurity

Latest Food Security Data – December 16, 2024

Domestic food price inflation remains high in many low- and middle-income countries. Inflation higher than 5% is experienced in 68.8% of low-income countries (1.2 percentage points lower since the last update on November 15, 2024), 46.7% of lower-middle-income countries (1.1 percentage points lower), 33% of upper-middle-income countries (3.0 percentage points lower), and 10.9% of high-income countries (1.8 percentage points higher). In real terms, food price inflation exceeded overall inflation in 59.8% of the 164 countries where data is available.

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Since the last Update on November 15, 2024, the agricultural, export, and cereal price indices closed 12, 25, and 1 percent higher, respectively. A sharp increase in cocoa and coffee prices, which increased 28 and 26 percent, respectively, drove the increase in the export price index. Maize and wheat prices closed 3 and 2 percent higher, respectively, and rice prices closed 2 percent lower. On a year-on-year basis, prices of all cereals in November were lower than a year ago: maize 9% lower, rice 10% lower, and wheat 2% lower. Maize and rice prices are 14 and 26 percent higher, respectively, than in January 2020, while wheat prices are 1 percent lower. (See “pink sheet” data for agricultural commodity and food commodity prices indices, updated monthly.)

In the Market Monitor for December 2024, the Agriculture Market Information System notes that global wheat, maize, rice, and soybean prices are lower than in 2023, with significant reductions observed across all categories. This reflects a relatively stable global market for the current marketing season, although uncertainties linger. Climate conditions in 2024, projected to be the warmest year on record, have influenced crop yields in varying ways. Although some regions benefited, others faced challenges, underscoring the vulnerability of agricultural systems to weather anomalies.

In the November 2024 edition of its biannual Food Outlook, FAO indicates that global food production is experiencing diverse trends across commodities. Declines are projected for wheat, maize, and sugar, whereas outputs of dairy, fisheries, meats, oilseeds, and rice are expected to grow. These shifts have implications for global consumption, trade, and stock levels, although food production remains highly sensitive to disruptions from adverse weather conditions, geopolitical conflicts, and policy changes. These factors threaten the balance between supply and demand, potentially undermining global food security. The Food Outlook also describes significant changes in the fertilizer market. After a challenging 2022 marked by high costs and limited production, 2023 saw notable recovery. In 2024, nitrogen production is expected to remain stable, phosphate production to decline slightly, and potassium to continue its growth trajectory. Lower natural gas prices, a key input for nitrogen fertilizers, have been instrumental in stabilizing production costs.