What the IDF Did to Hezbollah

Now that the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has been declared, Hezbollah has been crowing that it has won a great “victory.” Apparently that “victory” consists in the fact that the IDF did not manage to destroy the Lebanese terror group altogether, the way it is now doing to Hamas in Gaza, so that Hezbollah presents itself as still bravely standing against the Zionist entity. But the facts are quite otherwise; the damage to Hezbollah, both to its men and weapons, has been huge. And the IDF has provided the numbers that show the scale of the destruction it has inflicted on the Lebanese braggart warriors here:

The IDF released detailed data of Operation Northern Arrows against Hezbollah on Friday, following the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, which took effect early Wednesday morning.

According to the data, at least 2,500 terrorists were killed. This number includes Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and 14 senior members of the group’s leadership, including Fuad Shukr, the organization’s chief of staff. In addition, four division commanders, 24 brigade commanders, 27 battalion commanders, 63 company commanders, and 22 platoon commanders were killed during the campaign.

Ground operations were a key element in the campaign, with 14 brigade combat teams participating in over 100 special operations missions and 24 divisional raids. These operations, combined with the aerial and naval components, dealt a severe blow to Hezbollah’s Radwan Force and its operational infrastructure….

In addition, the IDF has elsewhere said that Hezbollah’s store of rockets is now only 20% of what it was on October 8, 2023.

In sum, Hezbollah can beat its chest and declare “victory” over the “Zionist entity,” but the numbers tell the real tale. There has been no “victory” by Hezbollah. Its leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed, as was his successor Hashem Safieddine. So were the commander and the deputy commander of Hezbollah’s elite unit, the Radwan Force. Many dozens of Hezbollah’s senior commanders were killed. Ten of the twelve members of its Jihad Council have been killed. And while the IDF has conservatively estimated that it has killed 2,500 Hezbollah combatants, Hezbollah itself believes that 4,000 of its combatants have been killed. Many thousands of others have been wounded, including 1,500 Hezbollah members wounded so severely by their “exploding pagers” that they have been rendered unfit for combat.

As to weapons, Hezbollah now has only 30% of the drones, and only 20% of the rockets, that it possessed on October 8, 2023. The IDF has confiscated 155,000 pieces of military equipment, along with 121,000 communication devices, computers, electronic equipment, and documents. It has destroyed 12,000 explosive devices, drones, and other explosive weapons, more than 13,000 anti-tank missile launchers and rockets, and anti-aircraft missiles. More than 12,500 Hezbollah targets were hit across Lebanon. 1,600 military headquarters, and 1,000 weapons storage facilities were struck during the operation.

If this is a “victory for Hezbollah,” what would a defeat for the terror group look like?

Both Israel and Hezbollah are also claiming that they have achieved their goals with the ceasefire agreement. Hezbollah says it is still standing, and that the agreement does not demand its total disarmament north of the Litani River; the group lives to fight another day. The agreement, according to Hezbollah, merely repeats UN Security Resolution 1701. Israel claims it has now degraded Hezbollah so much, whittling down the huge stockpile of weapons — rockets, missiles, mortars — that the group possessed on October 8, 2023, so that it will be unable to replenish its stock. Furthermore, with the group having to pull back north of the Litani River, it will no longer threaten northern Israel, and 80,000 displaced Israelis will now be able to return to their homes in the north. With the ceasefire, more Israeli soldiers, exhausted by fourteen months of constant combat, will be able to rest and recuperate. And with the agreement, Hamas knows that the IDF can now concentrate on dismantling what remains of it, and is likely to now declare itself ready for its own ceasefire with Israel.

The 60-day ceasefire will test the ability of the Lebanese state to make Hezbollah keep to its promises: to remove all of its forces south of the Litani, and to cease all attacks on Israel. Unlike UNSC 1701, however, this agreement does not require Hezbollah to disarm its forces throughout Lebanon. So let’s see how Hezbollah behaves in the next 60 days. Will it again revert to type, trying to rearm, with Iranian arms smuggled from Syria, but taking care not to fire at Israel, or will it, having been so undermined by Israel’s ferocious response to its attacks, do what it did not do in 2006, and actually keep its promises?