ES Morning Update October 29th 2024

A whole lot of nothing yesterday as the market chops as expected. It’s clear that the market is waiting on the election results so I still don’t think we’ll see any big break either direction until afterwards. I favor a move down of course as not only does the technical suggest a pullback is coming but I fully believe that we won’t have any final decision on who won the election after it’s finished. This “uncertainty” should be blamed for the drop in mid-late November and I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets resolved right at the low of that pullback. As for the short term I posted a possible wave count on Twitter yesterday, and here is that chart again…

You can see a rising channel on the very short term that we are in and a falling channel on the short term. Assuming the lower trendline of the rising channel holds (and I think it will) we should move up in the next few days to complete a 5 wave pattern for the C wave. That might be finished before the end of this week, and probably before the election next Tuesday.

And if it’s a lower high I have to think we’ll be moving down a little in front of the election inside of Medium Wave 4 (the early waves of course). A lower high this week and a move down into the election will suggest we topped for a Small Wave B as covered on my post yesterday, and that we are inside of Tiny Wave 1 of Small Wave C, inside Medium Wave 4, which is a nasty, and very bearish wave pattern… especially if the results from the election are not known.

And let’s face it, do we really think the demoncrats are going to accept a Trump win? Of course not. Even if it’s a blow out (and it should be) they will still fight it, and that should cause a panic in the market, which combined with that nasty wave pattern will setup a hard and fast move down.

I do not know the low but I have the two fake prints of 533.01 and the 483.07/483.62 (the fake print was put out twice) so I have to assume one of them is the likely target. I think it’s the 533.01 one because I think they are saving the lower 483 target for December as it will due too much technical damage to the market if they do it first, before hitting the upside 6100+ high I mean.

Anyway, as for today I think we continue to chop but with an upside bias most likely. The Tiny B Wave on the chart I posted for the very short term likely completed last Thursday, and the move up from there was an Extra Tiny Wave 1, with the sideways pullback yesterday carving out the Extra Tiny Wave 2, which leaves Extra Tiny Wave 3 up in play next. It should breakout of the top trendline of resistance in the falling channel, and after that there’s just Extra Tiny Wave 4 down and 5 up to complete Tiny C of Small B, which again… I think think ends before this week is over.

Have a blessed day.